Demographic Transition, Social Security, and Economic Development

Author: Feng Jin
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-09-01
Features: The theme of this book is the choice of pension insurance systems under the context of China's population transition. It focuses on analyzing the dynamic relationship among China's future population age structure, pension insurance systems, and macroeconomic performance. It objectively and persuasively points out that the current pay-as-you-go pension system in China has an objective basis for sustainable operation, while the prevailing view in academia advocating for the introduction of fund-based systems faces realistic and objective obstacles. The book's key feature lies in emphasizing the dynamic relationship among population age structure changes, pension insurance systems, and macroeconomic performance. First, we highlight the general between population age structure evolution and economic growth, providing a reasonable forecast of future China's population age structure changes. Second, we analyze the impact of population age structure changes on the operation of pension insurance systems and examine the demographic risks faced by different pension arrangements. Third, using a partial equilibrium analysis framework, we argue for the choice of China's pension insurance system under given population change parameters and macroeconomic variables. Finally, using a general equilibrium analysis framework, we simulate the dynamic process and steady-state conditions of how population age structure and pension insurance arrangements affect macroeconomic variables under the given future population age structure. We also construct a social welfare function to simulate the welfare effects of pension insurance arrangements. This book is part of the "Fudan University Young Economists Series."