Dare to say no to technical analysis

Author: Qi Ji
Publisher:
Publish Date: 1999-01-01
Features: Not suitable for holding positions. Best to be out of the market, with a balance between long and short. The overall trend is unclear. Not suitable for trading, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, rest and wait for the opportunity. Analysis and Comments: This judgment is highly general, making it immediately feel unfavorable, but it later suggests "maintain a wait-and-see attitude, rest and wait for the opportunity," meaning that resting is not about being completely indifferent, but rather observing and paying attention to potential opportunities that may arise. Especially when positions are trapped, it is more important to study market changes and adjust trading strategies proactively to control risks, rather than passively waiting. See Figure 1997-08-27 (Page 115 of this book). Figure 1997-08-27 shows that the trading situation on August 27 was indeed disappointing. It opened with a small consolidation, then traded lower throughout the day, and in the last half hour of the session, volume and price rose together, closing with a small bullish candlestick. In recent days, the market has consistently shown "increased volume and rising prices" at the end of the session, which often indicates "a potential upward trend." This should be seized, and on August 27, the rise was about 0.4%. Predicting the Shanghai Composite Index trend for August 28 (Thursday) at 18:45 on August 27 (Wednesday), the result was "." Referencing this book, Predicting Success – Trading Strategies for Futures and Stocks (Page 156), the results are as follows: Your mood is bad, do not trade. There are strange phenomena. Analysis and Comments: For such a result, it neither predicts how the market will move nor suggests what to do, but simply says "your mood is bad, do not trade," along with "strange phenomena." Generally, using one part of the "Qi Ji Holographic Trend Theory," the prediction results are targeted at the individual rather than others. That is, different people predicting the same market may have different outcomes. This result applies to the person making the prediction because everyone's perspective, personality, capital amount, position size, trading style, contacts, information heard, and analysis of the same market all differ. Similarly, a client with $50,000 will trade differently from a client with $5 million or $50 million. Even clients with amounts as small as $35,000, $100,000, or $200,000 will have different final trading methods due to small differences in positions and other factors. This is one of the key distinctions between this theory and technical analysis. Technical analysis specifies that certain indicators are at a specific level, and the market condition is clear, but everyone—whether big or small, male or female—knows and understands this. Yet, who takes the same action to buy or sell? Who deduces a suitable trading method from precise values and clear market conditions? Because technical analysis provides general guidance, it has little practical meaning for a specific client in the trading process. People need personalized, tailored guidance and methods, not statements like "the indicator is overbought, do not buy." Therefore, the "Qi Ji Holographic Trend Theory" reveals this difference, highlighting the uniqueness of trading. Different people's predictions and judgments are tailored to the person making the prediction, not others. As I often say, "The market