Research on the Fluctuations of China's Trade Balance; Causes, Cycles, Impacts, and Response Analysis

Author: Zheng Guihuan, Shi Desen, Wang Shouyang
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-01-01
Features: This book summarizes and compiles the analysis, modeling, and forecasting research conducted by the authors in the field of China's trade balance in recent years. The content covers all major aspects of this field. Part I is a cause analysis, which, based on a structural analysis of the evolution and current characteristics of China's trade balance, studies the reasons for its fluctuations, especially the causes of sustained trade surpluses since the 1990s. Part II is a cyclical analysis, which conducts leading indicator research on export cycles, import cycles, and trade balance cycles, establishes their respective leading composite indices, and applies them to predictive analysis. Part III is an impact analysis, which examines the potential consequences of persistent trade imbalances in foreign trade. Part IV is a response analysis, which discusses how government policy should be oriented to address the various problems that trade imbalances may bring.