Trend of Rural China (Agricultural Industrial Organization, Technological Progress, and the Transfer of Agricultural Surplus Labor)

Author: Zhan Junying, Fang Qiyun
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Features: The transfer of agricultural surplus labor is a phenomenon common to the economic development processes of all countries and a global historical process. However, compared to other countries, China has a massive stock of agricultural surplus labor and very low per capita agricultural resource ownership. Moreover, with population growth, increased agricultural labor productivity, and reduced arable land resources, the issue of agricultural surplus labor will tend to worsen. Therefore, the task of transferring agricultural surplus labor in China is extremely challenging. How to properly address the employment issue of agricultural surplus labor is a very difficult problem that China will face for a considerable period in the future. This book focuses on the following aspects: (1) Different forms of agricultural industrial organization and their performance; (2) Different agricultural technology choices and their relationship with the transfer of agricultural surplus labor; (3) The interrelationships between different agricultural organizations, technological progress, and the transfer of agricultural surplus labor; (4) The connotation of China's agricultural surplus labor and the types of driving forces behind its transfer; (5) Strategic choices related to the transfer of agricultural surplus labor and agricultural organization and technological progress.
Given the historical lessons from the industrialization processes of developing countries, it has been observed that research on the transfer of agricultural surplus labor has often focused only on the pulling effect of non-agricultural industry development, neglecting the pushing and attracting effects of internal agricultural organization and technological progress. This has led to shortcomings in theoretical research and biased policy measures, which are detrimental to the smooth development of agriculture and industrialization. This book argues: (1) The definition of agricultural surplus labor in China should be: agricultural laborers whose marginal return to farming within the household (income minus costs) is lower than the expected marginal return of rural non-agricultural and urban "peripheral" labor. This definition better reflects the characteristics of China's agricultural surplus labor. (2) To improve research on the transfer of agricultural surplus labor, while also addressing the issue of coordinated development between industry and agriculture during industrialization, this book dynamically studies the development relationship between the agricultural and industrial sectors based on China's economic environment. The focus is placed on the evolution of agricultural industrial organization, technological progress, and their relationship with the transfer of agricultural surplus labor. It specifically analyzes the potential promoting and hindering effects of agricultural industrial organization evolution, technological progress, and the transfer of agricultural surplus labor, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations in the context of short-term and long-term industrialization development. (3) Given the current situation of significant urban employment pressure in China, this book proposes a dual-gradient cross-transfer model and points out that expanding the internal absorption capacity of agriculture through agricultural organization innovation and technological progress is an effective measure for achieving the shallow-level transfer of agricultural surplus labor in the current stage. (4) It addresses the flaw in the study of agricultural surplus labor transfer by overemphasizing external factors and neglecting internal ones, breaks through the biases of Western development economics theories on the relationship between agriculture and employment, and expands and deepens research on the transfer of agricultural surplus labor and further industrialization, providing references for China to formulate appropriate agricultural industrial organization and technological policies.
The overall perspective of this book is that the process of agricultural labor transfer directly manifests as a continuous decline in the share of agricultural labor in the total labor force, ultimately leading to the dissolution of the dual economic structure and the realization of industrialization. We emphasize the improvement of agricultural organization and technological progress to enhance the depth and breadth of employment within the agricultural sector, not to keep agricultural surplus labor tied to the land, but to create conditions for their higher-level and more effective transfer. We believe that in the coming period, accelerating the "second entrepreneurship" of rural enterprises and continuing to leverage their leading role in absorbing agricultural labor remains an effective path for transferring China's agricultural surplus labor. We believe that the "urban agglomeration-type" transfer of agricultural surplus labor is an inevitable trend of historical development. Therefore, based on China's national conditions, we propose that the transfer of China's agricultural surplus labor must follow a path centered on small towns as the main channel and relying on large and medium-sized cities. Small-town employment capacity can be improved through the concentrated layout of rural enterprises, and the optimal allocation of agricultural labor resources can be achieved through "village-town mergers." Combining control and development strategies to expand the population and labor capacity of large and medium-sized cities remains a strategic choice for China's agricultural surplus labor transfer in the medium to long term.