Assessment of the Issue of Climate Transition from Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China

Author: Shi Yafeng, Editor-in-Chief
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2003-03-01
Features: Currently, global warming is becoming increasingly significant, profoundly impacting people's lives and production activities. The complex changes in the water cycle driven by global warming may have led to major shifts in the climate environment of most areas in the Northwest over the past decade, resulting in phenomena such as increased precipitation and runoff, accelerated glacier melting, rising lake levels, fewer days of strong winds and sandstorms, and improved vegetation. In response to these phenomena, researchers have identified correlations among them and proposed the scientific hypothesis that the climate in the Northwest may be transitioning from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions. The proposal of this issue holds not only academic significance but also substantial practical implications and far-reaching strategic importance for the ecological environment, socioeconomic aspects, and other areas in China's western region, requiring serious and prudent attention. In particular, whether these phenomena are temporary in time or may develop into long-term trends, and whether they are localized in space or tend to evolve into global-scale changes, remain unclear. Therefore, under the high (emphasis) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), representatives from 10 units, including hydrological, meteorological, and related research departments in Xinjiang, jointly held a symposium in Lanzhou from September 6 to 11, 2002, based on research conducted in Xinjiang. The symposium conducted in-depth discussions on recent facts, characteristics, causes, and future development trends of climate and environmental changes. It broadly agreed on the hypothesis of the climate transition from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions in the Northwest. On this basis, a report was drafted, reviewed, and revised by several specially invited experts before being finalized for reference by central, local, and relevant professional departments.
This book provides a relatively detailed collection of data on changes in temperature, precipitation, glacier meltwater, river runoff, lake levels, vegetation cover, and flood and sandstorm disasters in the Northwest of China over the past 40 years, along with comparative analyses spanning about 20 years before and after. It uses substantial evidence to demonstrate that since 1987, the Northwest region of China, especially west of the Hexi Corridor, has indeed exhibited a trend of continued temperature rise and significant precipitation increase compared to the previous 100 years. It also confirms the process of climate transition from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions. Through the analysis of certain atmospheric physical processes, the causes of the climate transition are inferred, and future trends over the next 50 years are predicted through simulations. On this basis, it is recommended that while further strengthening monitoring and research on climate and environmental changes in the Northwest, efforts should also be made to adapt to the transition, leverage its benefits while mitigating its drawbacks, and improve water resource utilization and ecological environment.