The reasons for war

Author: (American) Efraim Karsh, translated by He Yao
Publisher:
Publishing Date: 2007-01-01
Features: What are the causes that have led to multiple wars in modern society? Among these causes, which ones can be prevented? What might trigger future wars? How can these wars be better prevented? This book focuses on researching the causes of war related to the nature and distribution of national power. It first examines the immediate causes of war and then delves into their underlying causes. Chapter 2 highlights a danger (erroneous optimism), which is partly derived from the risks depicted in Chapters 3 and 6 (the benefits of preemptive action and the ease of conquest). The dangers pointed out in Chapters 3, 4, and 5 (the benefits of preemptive action, windows, and the cumulative nature of resources) also stem from the ease of conquest. This arrangement is not strictly followed. Some early-mentioned phenomena lead to later-mentioned ones. However, generally speaking, the book moves from immediate causes to underlying causes, with the issue of easy conquest being considered a primary risk among others. This is one of the Eastern Translation Press Translation Series. The author is one of the representatives of the defensive realism theory. The book proposes five hypotheses on the causes of war and analyzes and argues each one. (1) Holding erroneous optimism about crises and the outcomes of war, or underestimating the costs of war, can easily lead to war. (2) If the party that takes the first action or initiates an attack holds a certain advantage, war is more likely to break out. (3) Changes in relative power (referred to by the author as "windows") can easily lead to war. (4) When control over resources compels a nation to protect other resources, war is more likely to break out. (5) The easier conquest is, the more likely war is to break out. In our world, where war and conflict still exist, studying the causes of war is not to promote war, but to avoid many wars that could have been prevented.