China Quarterly Economic Model (China-QEM) (with CD-ROM)

Author: He Xinhua et al.
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-06-01
Features: To conduct a more scientific analysis and research on the world economic situation, having a multi-country model that can be used to analyze and predict the world economic situation has been the dream of several generations at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The successful development of the China Quarterly Economic Model (China_QEM) has created a good start for the early realization of this dream. The four main members of the model development team at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences—He Xinhua, Wu Haiying, Liu Shiguo, and Wang Ling—have put in arduous efforts. The model development work was preliminarily completed by the end of 2002. The China Quarterly Economic Model (China_QEM) differs from other macroeconomic econometric models published domestically in many aspects. It is the first macroeconomic model in China established with the purpose of policy analysis; it is one of the few demand-driven macroeconomic models in the country; it is one of the few quarterly macroeconomic models; its sample period covers the time interval when China officially entered the socialist market economy (Q1 1992–Q4 2001); and dynamic modeling theory was adopted during the model construction process. Since 2003, China_QEM has been used to study the impact of changes in the Chinese yuan exchange rate, world export prices, economic growth in China's major trading partners, and China's interest rates on the country's macroeconomy, achieving satisfactory results. This book consists of three parts: The first part includes Chapters 1 to 4, which mainly outline the structure of China_QEM, its theoretical foundation, the characteristics of China's economic operation, and publicly available Chinese macroeconomic models. The second part includes Chapters 5 to 11, which introduce the behavior equations of China_QEM. The third part includes Chapters 12 to 15, which discuss some applications of China_QEM.