2005-2006 Analysis and Forecast of China's Macroeconomic Situation

Author: Research Group of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-01-01
Features: Presented to the readers is our new research findings on the analysis and forecast of China's macroeconomic situation in 2005—2006. The book includes 5 comprehensive analysis reports, 8 thematic reports, and 7 hot topic reports, with detailed and systematic macroeconomic data for each month of 2005 appended at the end of the book. 2005 was the last year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Under the influence of the "dual stability" macroeconomic policy, the national economy achieved a good "wrap-up" with "high growth and low inflation," while the stability and coordination of economic growth were both improved, and reforms made noticeable progress in some areas. These developments will lay a solid foundation for China to maintain rapid and stable growth in 2006, the opening year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The main challenges facing China's macroeconomy in 2006 are the combined effects of overcapacity and insufficient consumer demand, which may lead to a resurgence of deflationary pressures. The macroeconomic policy orientation for 2006 and the early stage of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan is to continue adhering to the overall policy of "dual stability," with a focus on preventing deflation. The three major policy tools—fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies—will operate flexibly around three key policy objectives.