Miscalculation

Author: Ye Zhou
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2004-04-01
Features: What is miscalculation? The author explains this through the following phenomena: "luring a snake out of its hole only to get bitten by it," "catching a thief by closing the door only to get hurt by him"; "a dog desperate enough to jump the wall and bite people," "crossing the river at Chen Cang only to encounter an avalanche"; "losing a pawn without protecting the chariot," "using unconventional tactics but failing to win"; "looting a burning house only to set fire to oneself," "luring the tiger to the mountain only to get hurt by the tiger." What are the internal factors that lead to miscalculation? From countless historical cases of failure, the author summarizes the following six basic reasons:
1. Overestimating one's own abilities and underestimating others' abilities.
2. Overestimating immediate benefits and underestimating future risks.
3. Underestimating variables and oversimplifying problems.
4. Oversimplifying human nature and change.
5. Overestimating controllability and underestimating sudden events.
6. Overestimating the outcome of one's own plans and underestimating details.
This book primarily uses stories of villains as case studies, showing that both good and evil people can miscalculate. The final miscalculation often occurs due to external factors. The purpose of this book is to emphasize the importance of "miscalculation caused by accidental factors" and to achieve the goal of early warning.