Vicious Cycle and Breakthrough - The Global Energy Crisis of Humanity and Its Solutions

Author: Dong Chongshan
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-07-01
Features: Since humanity entered the 21st century, the fossil energy crisis has become severe. This energy crisis is not like the oil crisis of the 1970s, which was a localized and temporary issue that would eventually pass. This energy crisis is a comprehensive, overall, profound, and persistent energy crisis, one that will last for decades and have far-reaching impacts on the development of human society. Because this crisis is a total energy crisis and a comprehensive one, it will affect every country and region in the world. Because it is an overall crisis, it will shake and impact all fields and levels of society. Because it is a profound crisis, it will concern the families and people of all humankind. Because it is a persistent crisis, it will affect the descendants of humanity and the future and prospects of humankind.
1. World oil will decrease rapidly
In 1860, the world's annual energy consumption was only 5×10^12 kilowatt-hours, but currently, it has reached as high as 1.4×10^14 kilowatt-hours, a difference of 28 times. Since the 20th century, the world's population has increased fourfold, but energy consumption has increased 16fold. Of this, 80% of energy consumption comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. Due to the rapid development of the world economy, energy consumption has increased more and more, and at an ever-faster rate, especially oil consumption, which has put enormous pressure on coal, particularly oil, as the Earth has already been overburdened. This energy crisis was formed against this backdrop. Currently, the world's annual total oil consumption exceeds 250 billion barrels, with the United States alone consuming 60 billion barrels annually, accounting for about a quarter of the world's total oil consumption. According to the International Energy Agency, world energy consumption will continue to grow steadily before 2030, and fossil fuels will still be the basic energy source. Before 2030, more than 90% of demand growth will be met by fossil fuels. Among fossil fuels, natural gas will grow the fastest, but oil will still be the important energy source. In 2003, the world's crude oil production was 3.4 billion tons. Currently, the world's remaining recoverable oil reserves are only more than 140 billion tons, and at the current rate of extraction, they can still be mined for about 41 years. Of course, with continuous exploration, recoverable reserves will continue to increase. However, with the rapid development of the world economy, the demand for oil will also increase rapidly. Therefore, the exploitable life of oil is already numbered. Experts estimate that the world's natural gas can still be mined for about 60 more years, and coal for about 100 more years. Due to the sharp increase in oil demand, the oil imports of countries, especially major ones, have increased rapidly. According to statistics from early 2004, the United States' oil imports account for 55%, and by 2025, this figure will rise to 68%. The EU's current oil imports are 50%, and this data will rise to 70% by 2020–2030. It is estimated that China's oil consumption in 2004 was 270 million tons, with net imports exceeding 100 million tons, and imports accounting for more than 37%. China has become the world's second-largest oil importer after the United States. The more oil imports, the higher the proportion of imports, and the more severe the energy security situation becomes.