On the Safety and Growth Factors of Beijing's Tourism Industry

Author: Dai Bin et al.
Publisher:
Publication Date: 2006-03-01
Features: On the Safety and Growth Factors of Beijing's Tourism Industry is the concluding outcome of the same-named project under the Beijing Philosophy and Social Sciences "Fifteenth Five-Year" Plan. The book comprises a total of eleven chapters. Chapter 1, Introduction, primarily introduces the research background and methodology of the study. Based on a review of relevant literature on tourism industry safety, it provides a theoretical critique and briefly outlines the main viewpoints and policy recommendations of the project. Additionally, it highlights the research prospects and areas requiring further in-depth study. This design adheres to academic norms and meets the needs of researchers and users in grasping the overall research objectives and approach. Chapter 2, Tourism Industry Safety: Concepts, Principles, and Impact Mechanisms, explores the fundamental principles and research framework of tourism industry safety. After defining and categorizing the concept of tourism safety, this chapter proposes indicators for classifying tourism safety and regional discrimination criteria. It then systematically summarizes and rigorously constructs the logical relationships between internal and external factors influencing tourism industry safety. The main arguments of this chapter include: tourism safety issues can be explained at micro, industrial, and foundational levels; the classification of tourism safety issues can be based on observable standards, with specific color markers representing the safety level of the tourism industry; tourism safety should be studied from both internal and external perspectives, where external factors are inputted from the outside to the inside along certain pathways, while endogenous factors spread from the inside to the outside and from to along specific trajectories, and so on. This chapter primarily conducts theoretical research on tourism safety from a theoretical level and its intrinsic logical relationships, while subsequent chapters further enrich and interpret the content of this chapter based on the practice of Beijing's tourism industry, extensive literature review, and data analysis. Chapter 3 is Development of Beijing's Tourism Market and Evolution of Urban Tourism Functions. From this chapter onward, the study shifts to empirical research on the safety of Beijing's tourism industry. The main content of this chapter includes: first, a comprehensive analysis of the development process and current status of Beijing's tourism market from three perspectives—Beijing as a destination, a transit point, and a source market—using extensive data. Second, it proposes that Beijing's tourism market structure is undergoing profound transformation and highlights the strategic impact of this transformation on Beijing's tourism industry: the changing market structure is driving the development of Beijing's tourism functions toward a composite model; the rise of source market functions will have a significant impact on the growth model of Beijing's tourism industry; this calls for a reevaluation and reconsideration of the role of Beijing's tourism industry in economic growth and social development, and so on. Chapter 4, Transformation and Development Forecast of Beijing's Tourism Market Structure, further extends and substantiates the content of Chapter 3. This chapter conducts an empirical analysis of the transformation of Beijing's tourism industry from the perspectives of the overall scale and structural changes of the market, as well as dependence on sources and external influences. It summarizes the impact of market structure transformation on Beijing's tourism industry performance at the meso level and on enterprise strategies at the micro level, and forecasts the development trends of Beijing's tourism market: it first analyzes the evolutionary direction of Beijing's source market from economic, temporal, price, exchange rate, and policy factors, then uses the Eviews3.0 model to predict the inbound and domestic tourism markets in Beijing during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and compares these results with existing forecasts. The research team believes that Beijing's tourism market will maintain an average annual growth rate of 8% during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period; in particular, Beijing's tourism source market function has become highly prominent, not only as an important source market but also as a key transit point. Therefore, in terms of policy recommendations, it is proposed that Beijing's tourism industry must shift its growth foundation and strategic focus to local source markets, improving various service facility systems as a source market. Chapter 5, Changes in Beijing's Tourism Industry Structure: Theoretical Research and Empirical Analysis, conducts theoretical and empirical research on the current state of Beijing's tourism industry safety from an internal structure perspective. It measures the return rate of Beijing's tourism industry from both internal and external perspectives, then analyzes changes in Beijing's tourism consumption level, consumption structure, and fixed investment in the tourism industry, and finally examines the transformation of Beijing's tourism industry structure and industry performance. The research team believes that Beijing's tourism industry has made significant contributions to the development of the national economy; currently, tourism industry development is maturing under government leadership; the industry layout is dominated by domestic tourism; hotels are the industry with the highest contribution rate to the tourism industry, but the impact of the travel agency industry should not be overlooked; in terms of development trends, the status of inbound tourism will further decline; the government's role in Beijing's tourism development is substantial; the market concentration of tourism enterprises will be difficult to change in the short term, excluding government factors, and so on. Chapters 6, The Environment and Supporting Factors for Beijing's Tourism Industry Operation (Part 1), and Chapter 7, The Environment and Supporting Factors for Beijing's Tourism Industry Operation (Part 2), comprehensively argue the operating environment and supporting factors of Beijing's tourism industry based on industrial linkage theory. The research team starts with the general theory of industrial linkage, defines the core factors, supporting factors, and operating environment affecting Beijing's tourism industry based on tourism satellite accounts, and then calculates the correlation coefficients between all relevant industries at the operating environment level and the tourism industry using an "input-output" model. Combining Beijing's actual conditions, it analyzes empirically the impact of factors such as catering, transportation, museums, and commercial culture (shopping, events, cinemas, and festivals) on the tourism industry, as well as the influence of tourism industry policies and the social environment. The main arguments include: the services and products provided by Beijing's tourism industry are generally not used for the re-production of inputs in other sectors of the national economy but are mostly consumed as consumer goods to meet the needs of people and society; compared to other industries, Beijing's tourism industry relies more heavily on support from intermediate industries; the largest "buyer" of tourism services and products is usually the tourism industry itself; catering, museum, and commercial culture factors have already formed a sound support system for Beijing's tourism industry; the social environment factors (such as finance, insurance, and other industries) play an important role in the development of Beijing's tourism, and so on. Chapter 8 is Current State and Industry Policy Research on Beijing's Travel Agency Industry. After conducting a systematic study of the framework system and operating environment of Beijing's tourism industry safety, this chapter focuses on the typical tourism enterprise organization—the travel agency. It first analyzes the scale, structure, performance, and operational characteristics of Beijing's travel agency industry, pointing out the problems in its operation. It then analyzes the main factors and development goal system affecting Beijing's travel agency industry during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. Finally, the authors propose a promotion system and safeguard measures for Beijing's travel agency industry. The main arguments of this chapter include: Beijing's travel agency industry is developing steadily, and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" development goals for the industry should be determined from aspects such as industry division, industry positioning, industry self-discipline, and technology application; the promotion system and safeguard measures for the travel agency industry should be constructed from three aspects: industry development and market optimization, industry structure adjustment and enterprise development strategies, and the promotion of enterprise vitality and operational safeguards. Chapters 9, Current State and Macro-Control Ideas for Beijing's Accommodation Industry (Part 1), and Chapter 10, Current State and Macro-Control Ideas for Beijing's Accommodation Industry (Part 2), primarily study the current state, development goals, and safety system construction of Beijing's accommodation industry. This section first examines the current development of Beijing's tourism accommodation industry, then studies the supply relationship of Beijing's tourism hotel industry from both effective demand forecasting and supply-demand equilibrium analysis, and analyzes and forecasts the investment and operation of the hotel industry during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. It points out the development goals and control direction of Beijing's accommodation industry, and on this basis, constructs a tourism industry policy and macro-control system for Beijing, providing a detailed plan for the sustainable development of Beijing's hotels. The main arguments and policy recommendations include: according to current statistical data, the operational performance of Beijing's hotel industry is not high; during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, although the capital market will favor investment in the hotel industry due to the continuous growth of the tourism market, the supply speed of Beijing's hotels will lag behind the growth rate of demand due to constraints on medium and long-term loan interest rates, and the gap needs to be bridged by maximizing the effective stock of existing hotels and improving occupancy rates; the macro-control system for Beijing's hotel industry should be constructed based on the industry scale, structure, product structure, regional layout, property reform, the "green, technology, and humanistic" Olympic concept, and macro-control; the sustainable development of Beijing's hotel industry has strong strategic significance, and so on. The final chapter of the book, Chapter 11, Urban Comparison of Tourism Safety, uses comparative research methods to analyze the current state and characteristics of tourism industry development in similar domestic and international cities after conducting systematic quantitative and qualitative analyses of the endogenous factors and external environment affecting Beijing's tourism industry safety. This chapter draws on the successful experiences of tourism industry safety in domestic cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, as well as international cities such as Paris, New York, and Singapore. It argues that the functions of government departments should shift from supervision and management of the tourism industry to guidance and regulation of market order; non-official tourism management associations should be fully empowered; Beijing's government departments should increase overall marketing efforts for the tourism market; and tourism safety response and prediction mechanisms should be improved. Through this chapter's research, the author hopes to interpret the current state of Beijing's tourism industry safety within a broader macrocontext through comparative analysis.