Current and Future Population of Qiandongnan

Author: Population Census Office, Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2004-03-01
Features: Based on the data from the fifth population census of Qiandongnan Prefecture, we predict and analyze that by the time of the fifth population census in 2000, China had entered the low fertility stage with a total fertility rate of 2.1, while Guizhou Province's total fertility rate was 2.16. Among the four scenarios we selected, the second-highest scenario with a total fertility rate of 1.9 is only slightly lower than the actual level and can be achieved with effort. The medium and low scenarios are still some distance from the current reality. The high scenario has relatively loose control, and adhering to the established family planning policies and principles can achieve the target of a total fertility rate of 2.162. Therefore, the high scenario serves as a warning line. The low scenario starts with a total fertility rate of 1.5, but 1.5 represents half of the couples having only one child while the other half has two children. Under the current social, economic, and cultural environment of Qiandongnan Prefecture, this is highly unlikely, making it merely our goal of effort. In my opinion, the future population control target for Qiandongnan Prefecture is: firmly implement the second-highest scenario, steadily advance the medium and low scenarios, promote the medium and low scenarios in urban areas, and control the rural areas within the high scenario framework.
III. Characteristics of Future Population Reproduction and Control Strategies
Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the early 1970s, Qiandongnan Prefecture has achieved significant results in population control, with the population entering a period of low growth under certain constraints. The type of population reproduction is transitioning from transitional to intensive, but the situation remains far from optimistic. The future population reproduction in Qiandongnan Prefecture from 2000 to 2010 will exhibit the following characteristics:
1. Low Birth Rate and Relatively High Growth Volume in Population Reproduction
The calculation results show that Qiandongnan Prefecture's birth rate dropped from 18.55% in 2000 to 15.75% in 2001. In 2003, it reached its lowest point of 15.07%, and then gradually increased, returning to 17.73% by 2010, with population reproduction falling below the replacement level. However, due to a large population base and inertia, the total population continues to grow, with an average annual net increase of around 300,000. By 2010, the population of Qiandongnan Prefecture will reach 4.1682 million, presenting a "low birth rate, relatively high growth volume" pattern. This growth trend will persist for a long period. Therefore, Qiandongnan Prefecture cannot be overly optimistic about population reproduction. It is absolutely essential not to make incorrect assessments of the population situation based on declining birth rates and to relax control over population numbers.
2. Social Constraints in the Transition of Population Types
During the transition of population reproduction from transitional to intensive in Qiandongnan Prefecture, its path and national conditions differ from the traditional population transition of developed countries in the following ways:
(1) Steep Population Transition
In population transition, the decisive factors are the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. In developed countries, the decline in birth rates is gradual and gradual, occurring over a relatively long process. For example, the birth rates of Nordic and Western European countries dropped from 30% to 20% over about 50 years. Even Japan, which has a relatively fast population reproduction transition, took nearly 20 years. Qiandongnan Prefecture achieved this in less than a decade. This demonstrates the rapid pace of population reproduction type transition in Qiandongnan Prefecture.
(2) Unbalanced Population Transition
This is primarily reflected in three aspects: regional imbalance, urban-rural imbalance, and imbalance among groups with different educational levels.
① Regional Imbalance
In 2000, there were 4 counties with a total fertility rate of 2 or below, 9 counties with a total fertility rate between 2.0 and 2.5, and 3 counties with a total fertility rate above 2.5 (see Table 2).
② Urban-Rural Imbalance
The average total fertility rate of counties (cities) in Qiandongnan Prefecture has dropped to 2.16, but the rural average total fertility rate is higher than that of urban areas.
③ Imbalance Among Women of Reproductive Age with Different Educational Levels
The educational level of women of reproductive age has a significant impact on fertility rates. According to the 2000 population census, as women's educational levels increase, fertility rates decline (see Table 3).
(3) Reversibility of Population Transition
The population transition in Europe, America, and Japan is irreversible, but China is different. With any changes in policy or relaxation in work, birth rates will rise significantly, and the population situation can be reversed, especially in rural areas. This is because China's population transition is not spontaneous but achieved through conscious social control. As long as the intensity of conscious social control weakens, the transition can reverse.
3. Population Age Structure Already Adult-Type and Rapidly Transitioning to Elderly-Type
The data from the fifth population census of Qiandongnan Prefecture in 2000 show that the age structure of the prefecture has already become adult-type, with some areas even transitioning to elderly-type. Compared to developed countries, the aging of the population in Qiandongnan Prefecture is characterized by a fast pace, large scale, and uneven development. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the education of the Miao, Dong, and other ethnic groups in Qiandongnan Prefecture began at a very low level. By 1988, the prefecture had 3,653 schools of all levels and types, a 4.9-fold increase from 1949. From 1978, with the reform and opening-up, the educational system was reformed, mobilizing the enthusiasm of social, promoting the prosperity of the educational cause, and establishing a socialist education system that covered early childhood education to higher education, general education to specialized education, and formal education combined with part-time education. Ethnic education was particularly emphasized by leaders at all levels. In 1988, the number of students in schools of all levels and types across the prefecture reached 669,500, a 13.6-fold increase from 1949 and a 15.5% increase from 1978. Full-time teachers numbered 277,000, a 33.6-fold increase from 1949 and a 24.2% increase from 1978. In the past decade, fiscal investment in education reached 354.81 million yuan, a 1.5-fold increase from the previous three decades. The development of education has significantly improved the cultural quality of the people. Since the 1990s, the state has explicitly stated that the focus of education development should be on popularizing nine-year compulsory education and eliminating illiteracy among young and middle-aged adults. Compulsory education has made remarkable progress. In 1998, the review and acceptance of the "popularizing six years of primary education" in Majiang and Rongjiang counties and the high-standard illiteracy eradication passed by the provincial review in Majiang, Rongjiang, and Shibing counties. Tianzhu County's "popularizing nine years of primary education" reached national standards. The coverage rate of "popularizing nine years of primary education" across the prefecture reached 40%. The enrollment rate and retention rate of school-age children were 97.23% and 95.2%, respectively, while the adult illiteracy rate was 5.6%. The prefecture had 3,079 schools of all levels and types, with 154,000 students in middle and primary schools. The enrollment of higher education (normal college) increased by 12.17% to 5,160 students, and the enrollment of vocational secondary schools increased by 1.73% to 3,050 students. The compulsory education project was fully launched, with 139 rural primary schools under construction and 83 completed, further improving educational conditions.
It can be seen that the education of Qiandongnan Prefecture has improved significantly since the founding of the People's Republic of China. However, overall, there is still a considerable gap. Specifically, what was the state of education in Qiandongnan Prefecture at the time of the fifth population census in 2000? Below, we will primarily explore the current state of education and the development of a moderately prosperous society in the prefecture from the aspects of illiteracy rate index and comprehensive education index, combined with key indicators of a moderately prosperous society such as per capita GDP.