Economic globalization and China-US economic and trade relations

Author: Guo Yiyao
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2001-04-01
Features: In the late 1980s, the end of the Cold War and the subsequent massive changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries brought fundamental shifts in the international political and economic landscape. First, the conclusion of the Cold War and the end of the bipolar confrontation between the two superpowers at least temporarily resolved the conflicts and rivalries between the post-war world's two superpowers. Currently, although the world's only superpower—America—still faces numerous contradictions with other developed countries, it has lost its political rival, and the world is more stable than before. The former Soviet Union not only ceased to exist due to the dramatic changes in its own and the former Eastern European countries' social systems but also its successor, Russia, has been unable to fully escape the troubles of a crisis due to unsuccessful economic reforms and domestic ethnic conflicts. As things stand now, Russia's economic crisis has reached its bottom. However, it will likely take at least until after 2010 for Russia to regain the power it had before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Although Russia will not give up its former dream of dominating the world, it lacks the capacity to recreate a bipolar world in the next 15 years. During this period, the international political landscape will gradually form a "one superpower, multiple powers" structure. The coexistence of multiple major powers and blocs will help constrain America's actions from multiple angles, thereby further contributing to relative stability in the world situation. Although localized conflicts and struggles between individual regions and countries or within them may occasionally escalate, the world will not be entirely peaceful, but it will not develop into a global confrontation or war. Thus, the future world will maintain a state of "local turbulence, overall stability."
At the same time, the global economy has also entered a period of stable growth after overcoming the crisis of the early 1990s. In the 1980s, the global economy experienced a prolonged period of economic growth. During this time, developed countries like the United States vigorously promoted the information revolution, led by high-tech industries such as microelectronics and computer technology, enabling them to enter the information economy era first. Particularly, the development of the United States has had a profound impact on the global economy. In the 1980s, it heavily invested in developing information industries, including integrated circuits, computer software, personal computers, and optical cables, while also working to equip and transform traditional industries such as steel, automobiles, and chemicals into knowledge-intensive sectors, thereby rapidly transforming its economy from an industrial economy to an information economy. After overcoming the economic recession of the early 1990s, especially after President Clinton took office, the United States proposed the "Information Superhighway" plan, ushering in a period of strong economic growth. Although the Federal Reserve considered a 2.5% growth rate and a 6% unemployment rate as targets for maintaining sustained economic stability, the U.S. economy achieved a growth rate of 3.8% in 1997 and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. Corporate profits increased from $400 billion in 1990 to $700 billion in 1997. The inflation rate dropped from 4.5% in 1991 to 1.5% in 1997, achieving what is known as "low-inflation economic growth," and the economic outlook continued to look favorable. As a result, economists both domestically and internationally optimistically referred to the U.S. economy as the "new economy." Whether this label is appropriate or not, the U.S. economy is expected to enjoy a prolonged period of growth and will have a significant impact on the development of the global economy. Unlike the United States, Japan and the European Union countries faced difficulties in achieving economic recovery after overcoming the global economic crisis of the early 1990s and struggled to reach a period of high growth. The reasons for this, apart from their systemic flaws that could not fully adapt to the needs of economic development in the information age, were primarily that they did not promptly use new information technology to transform traditional manufacturing sectors while developing information industries in the 1980s. Therefore, Japan and the EU countries must adjust their economic systems and industrial structures in a timely manner to overcome their economic challenges and achieve new growth.
Signs indicate that with the global spread and adoption of information technology, a climax of industrial restructuring and optimization will emerge worldwide. Meanwhile, since the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, sustainable development has become a common goal for all countries to strive for. Various "clean production" technologies developed around resource conservation and environmental protection have also become new growth points for the global economy, offering another excellent opportunity for the economic development of developed countries. As a result, many believe that the global economy has entered a "new golden age," with some even predicting it will last for decades. Although I find it difficult to accurately state how long this growth period will last, it will at least continue into the early 21st century. Even if a cyclical economic recession occurs around the turn of the century, the decline will be limited and far from sufficient to halt the global economic growth process. However, this new round of global economic growth presents both opportunities and challenges for developing countries, with the latter possibly outweighing the former. Because the key factor in this round of growth is the widespread application of modern technology, represented by information technology, in the economy. In fields such as information technology and other sciences, developing countries do not hold a dominant position. Although economic globalization will inevitably lead developed countries to transfer mature technologies to developing countries with better foundations, providing them with new opportunities for development, the future economic growth of developing countries will largely still depend on technology transfer from developed countries. As the technological content in the economic development of developed countries rapidly increases, the technological gap between developing and developed countries will inevitably widen.
At the same time, the East Asian financial crisis that began in July 1997 demonstrates that East Asian developing countries still face serious obstacles in their economic systems that hinder their adaptation to economic globalization, leaving them vulnerable to crises at any time. It is clear that during the process of economic development, developing countries should reform their economic systems in a timely and appropriate manner to enhance their ability to withstand economic risks and eliminate hidden dangers in their development. Although after the adjustments following this Southeast Asian financial crisis, the economies of East Asia and other developing countries may continue to grow rapidly, in the long run, due to their significant technological lag, there are reasonable grounds to doubt whether the economic output of developing countries can gradually approach and surpass that of developed countries as previously hoped. It seems that for developing countries to effectively advance their economies, the only solution is to develop education and science, improving human quality and the quality of economic development.
China is the world's largest developing socialist country and an increasingly globalized member of the world economy. Its development will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global economy. In the past two decades, China's reform and opening-up have achieved remarkable results that have been recognized worldwide. However, China still faces the arduous task of transitioning from a planned economy to a market economy and from an extensive to an intensive mode of economic growth. Since there is no existing experience to draw upon for these transitions, we not only need to continuously summarize and study the experiences and lessons from our own reform process but also should seriously study and learn from the experiences of other countries. It has been proven that economic development follows its own laws. Whether in socialist or capitalist countries, economic development must adhere to these laws. However, due to China's past implementation of a socialist planned economy system, excessive and overly detailed administrative intervention distorted these economic laws, making it difficult to discern the trajectory of their effects from our own experiences. Therefore, during the transition from a planned economy to a market economy and the establishment and improvement of a socialist market economy system, we must study the experiences and lessons of market economy systems in foreign countries (especially developed countries) more seriously. Since developed countries are largely free-market economies where economic laws are respected and can function more fully, we can learn from their experiences and lessons to identify the general laws of economic development. Then, by combining China's specific conditions, we can apply these laws to China's economic reform and construction, thereby forging a path that aligns with both the general laws of economic development and China's realities—a path with Chinese characteristics.
A brief review of the history of economic development in developed countries reveals that many of the challenges China is currently facing in its economic reforms—such as the path of agricultural development, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the development of science and technology, and the transformation of research outcomes—have all been encountered and resolved in the economic development processes of other countries. By summarizing their experiences and combining them with China's specific conditions, we can overcome these difficulties and find our way out of the. For this purpose, the Social Sciences Academic Press of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has decided to launch the World Economy Forum in a series, aiming to collect the outstanding works of Chinese scholars on the world economy (whether on historical or contemporary issues, in the form of essays or monographs) to provide references for China's economic leadership, decision-makers, and researchers, and to contribute to China's economic reform and construction. Moreover, the World Economy Forum, especially its essays on hot issues, due to their comprehensive, systematic, and incisive analysis, will help readers gain a deeper understanding of the causes and consequences of problems and grasp their development trends. Therefore, they can also serve as tools for business professionals, foreign trade and economic personnel, and diplomats to grasp the international situation, make timely decisions, avoid risks, and advance their careers.
In summary, the World Economy Forum serves readers from all walks of life. In this regard, Social Sciences Academic Press has previously provided readers with many excellent works, and we believe that the World Economy Forum will introduce even more outstanding essays to delight its readers.