Prediction and Decision-Making

Author: Li Hua
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-03-01
Features: This book serves as a textbook and reference for management graduate students with an engineering background studying the course "Forecasting and Decision Making." It adopts a narrative style that is easily understandable for engineering students and managers, providing a comprehensive introduction to the main content and methods of forecasting and decision making. The book is divided into 2 parts, 13 chapters in total. Part 1 is on Forecasting, including an overview of forecasting, expert forecasting methods, trend extrapolation forecasting methods, deterministic time series forecasting methods, stochastic time series forecasting methods, Markov forecasting methods, grey forecasting methods, and forecasting accuracy and evaluation. Part 2 is on Decision Making, covering an overview of decision making, expected utility theory, single-objective risk-based decision making, single-objective non-deterministic decision making and probabilistic ranking decision making, and multi-objective decision making. Each chapter is followed by questions and exercises. Reading this book requires only basic knowledge of advanced mathematics, linear algebra, and probability and statistics. It can be used as a textbook for master's students in economics and management, as well as for MBA students and senior undergraduate students. It is also suitable for reference for individuals with a university-level mathematics foundation and those working in management positions.