Statistical Forecasting and Decision Making (Second Edition) (Includes one CD-ROM)

Author: Xu Guoxiang
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-08-01
Features: This book, as a key planned teaching material approved by the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Finance, organically and logically combines and arranges various methods of statistical forecasting and decision-making. It comprehensively and systematically elaborates on qualitative forecasting methods, scenario forecasting methods, regression forecasting methods, time series decomposition and trend extrapolation methods, time series smoothing forecasting methods, adaptive filtering methods, balanced time series forecasting methods, intervention analysis model forecasting methods, business cycle forecasting methods, grey forecasting methods, state space models and Kalman filtering, forecasting accuracy determination and evaluation, and combination forecasting methods. Additionally, it covers the theory and application of risk-based decision-making methods, Bayesian decision-making methods, uncertainty-based decision-making methods, and multi-objective decision-making methods. The book presents the characteristics, application conditions, suitable scenarios, and necessary evaluations of various methods, emphasizing case studies and the application of electronic computers. While elaborating on basic methods, it also explores the latest and proven-to-be applicable methods from domestic and international research. Therefore, the book balances accessibility and academic rigor, progressing from simple to complex. It can serve as a textbook for relevant majors in higher education institutions and also as a reference for economic and management professionals, researchers, systems engineering personnel, marketing professionals, and others.