U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Base Period Forecast: 2013

Author: Zhang Hanlin
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-07-01
Features: This report provides long-term baseline forecasts for the agricultural sector up to 2013. The forecast scope includes agricultural products, agricultural trade, and the agricultural composite index. The models and forecasts are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policies, weather, and international developments. The baseline model assumes no major natural disasters or exceptional events that would significantly impact global supply and demand. Additionally, the model assumes that the Agricultural Act of 2002 has been in effect. The baseline model provides only a perspective on the agricultural sector for the next decade, and thus, different assumptions would yield different results, which is subject to debate. The forecasts in this report were made between October and December 2003 and represent a combination of model results and expert judgment. The forecasting work for this report was completed before the discovery of a case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in Washington State. After the global economic downturn from 2001 to 2003, sustained growth in both domestic and international economies has created favorable conditions for demand in the U.S. agricultural sector. Although the U.S. dollar has declined from its recent peak, it remains high, and trade tensions have intensified, both of which are constraints on U.S. exports. However, the growth rate of economic expansion, particularly in developing countries, has laid a solid foundation for global consumption and trade, U.S. agricultural product exports, and agricultural prices. Combined with rising domestic demand for agricultural products, both market prices and cash income are expected to increase, which would be highly beneficial for improving the income situation of the U.S. agricultural sector.