Quantitative Analysis of China's Macroeconomic Performance

Author: Zhu Baoliang
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-06-01
Features: This book is divided into five parts. Part 1 analyzes and forecasts the total performance of China's macroeconomic operation. 1. It calculates the contribution of production factors to economic growth since the reform and opening-up, concluding that capital accumulation, labor force expansion, and total factor productivity each contribute 5.5, 0.9, and 3 percentage points to economic growth, respectively. 2. Using econometric analysis methods, it conducts empirical analysis on the actual development of China's economy, estimating major macroeconomic indicator function models suitable for China's conditions, such as the investment function, consumption function, import and export function, and price model. It analyzes the role of investment, consumption, and foreign trade in driving economic growth. 3. It uses econometric models to analyze the impact of policy changes, such as investment policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and price policy, on economic growth, employment, prices, and international. It also forecasts the potential for economic growth and the actual development during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. 4. It proposes policy recommendations on how to leverage potential economic growth capacity to bring actual economic growth closer to potential growth levels. Part 2 explores theories of industrial development evolution, analyzes the basic characteristics of China's industrial development since the reform and opening-up, and uses industrial development models to predict and analyze the path of industrial growth in the future. Part 3 introduces the history of econometrics development and the current status of the research, development, and application of econometric models in China. It describes the ideas, methods, and applications of China's macroeconomic econometric model in the new version of the United Nations World Economic Model System developed by the National Information Center. Part 4 introduces the principles, ideas, and applications of China's industrial development model. The Chinese industrial development model takes demand orientation as its starting point, using a combination of econometrics, input-output analysis, and the extended linear expenditure system to establish the model. The aggregate model part of the Chinese industrial development model is consistent with the Chinese macroeconomic econometric model. Part 5 introduces the history of economic growth theory development and, based on economic growth theory, develops China's economic growth model. It calculates the contribution of production factors to economic growth and the sources of total factor productivity.