2005 China Industrial Development Report

Author: Liu Shijin / Yang Jianlong
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-06-01
Features: If the economic growth since the second half of 2004 is merely viewed as a rebound in macroeconomic indicators, it significantly undervalues the changes China's economy is undergoing. For an economy still in a long-term period of rapid growth, structural changes are often more important than aggregate changes. The remarkable aspect of structural changes is the emergence of a new batch of high-growth leading industries. Understanding the characteristics and growth mechanisms of these industries holds special significance for comprehending certain new macroeconomic phenomena. The "China Industrial Development Report" project, through nearly seven years of continuous and systematic tracking research on the development status of various industries, has formed a fundamental viewpoint: China's economy is entering a new stage of heavy chemical industry. This stage exhibits growth characteristics different from the past, and it is not advisable to simply apply historical experience to explain it. For government agencies, policies on industrial development and macroeconomics should be adjusted accordingly. For various investment institutions, objectively and timely understanding the new characteristics and patterns of industrial development and structural changes is also an important prerequisite for accurately grasping investment opportunities and risks.
— Editor's Note
At the end of 1998, to promptly and comprehensively grasp the new dynamics of China's industrial development, the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, in collaboration with more than 20 research teams composed of relevant national departments, launched the "China Industrial Development Tracking Research." This book is one of the core achievements of the 2004 annual research. After nearly seven years of continuous effort, the research has become a high-level, authoritative, and in-depth study that integrates practical application, leading the field domestically. It is particularly noteworthy that to scientifically, objectively, and visually reflect the characteristics and trends of various industries, the research project also drew on the basic principles of the "Harvard Index" to design the first domestic "Industrial Growth Business Cycle Index" and established medium-to-short-term forecasting models for more than 30 industries. These innovations not only broke through long-standing methodological challenges in domestic industry analysis and forecasting but also achieved significant results in practical applications. These research findings have been actively recognized by national decision-making bodies, relevant government departments, the business community, and financial and investment institutions, regarded as one of the most authoritative outcomes reflecting the trends of China's industrial development.
The "China Industrial Development Report," published annually, serves as an important platform for releasing research outcomes and has been recognized both domestically and internationally as a "barometer" for China's industrial development. Additionally, this book compiles some of the recent research findings from the Industrial Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, as well as key data from the development of various industries. Whether for researchers deeply concerned with the profound issues of China's industrial development and reform or for investors closely watching the emerging new investment opportunities in China, this book holds significant reference value.