Management

Author: Zhou Zhichun et al. / Country:
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2004-08-01
Features: [Excerpt:] The main operational procedures of the brainstorming method are as follows:
(1) Preparation stage. The person in charge of CI planning and design should conduct some research on the issue to be discussed in advance, clarify the essence of the problem, identify the key points, and set the goals to be achieved in solving the problem. At the same time, select the participants for the meeting. It is generally advisable to have 5 to 10 people, not too many. Then, inform the participants in advance about the time, location, issue to be addressed, reference materials, ideas, and goals to be achieved, so that everyone can prepare adequately.
(2) Warm-up stage. The purpose of this stage is to create a free, relaxed, and harmonious atmosphere, allowing everyone to relax and enter a state of unrestricted thinking. After the host announces the meeting, they should first explain the rules, then discuss some interesting topics or issues to put everyone's minds in a light and active state. If the proposed issues are somehow related to the meeting theme, people will naturally and comfortably enter the discussion topic, yielding better results.
(3) Clarifying the problem. The host briefly introduces the problem to be addressed. The introduction should be concise and clear, avoiding excessive detail, as too much information may limit thinking and interfere with creative imagination.
(4) Rephrasing the problem. After some discussion, everyone has a deeper understanding of the problem. At this point, to ensure that the problem statement has a new perspective and mindset, the host or secretary should record everyone's remarks and organize the notes. Through the organization and summarization of the records, creative insights and inspiring expressions can be identified for reference in the next stage of brainstorming.
(5) Brainstorming stage. Brainstorming is the creative phase of the brainstorming method. To encourage everyone to speak freely, the following rules should be established: , do not engage in private conversations to avoid distracting attention. Second, do not interrupt or comment on others' remarks, and each person should only express their own ideas. Third, when presenting insights, they should be brief and clear, with only one idea per statement. The host should first announce these rules and then guide everyone to speak freely, imagine freely, and express themselves freely, allowing mutual inspiration and supplementation. This ensures that everyone speaks their minds fully and honestly, and the meeting records are then organized.
(6) Screening stage. Within one or two days after the meeting, the host should follow up with the participants to gather any new ideas or insights that emerged afterward, supplementing the meeting records. Then, organize everyone's ideas into several proposals and screen them based on general CI design standards, such as recognizability, creativity, and feasibility. After multiple comparisons and selecting the best from the best, finally determine 1 to 3 optimal solutions. These optimal solutions often represent the combination of multiple creative strengths and are the result of collective wisdom.
2. The Gordon Method. This is an expert meeting discussion method created by American scholar Gordon in 1961. It was developed to address the psychological dynamics, social relationships, and confidentiality of decision-making issues among participants. The meeting leader does not explicitly state the meeting's theme but instead proposes related questions or uses analogies to temporarily conceal the main decision-making issue. For example, if the decision involves revitalizing old products or designing and developing new products, and considering that such a move may affect participants' interests, issues like market trends or material performance are discussed first, and then the main topic is addressed. This approach allows participants to freely express their opinions and independent thinking without restriction. This method is also known as "nominal group technique" or "synectics."
3. The Delphi Method. The Delphi method is a qualitative forecasting method developed by experts at the RAND Corporation in the early 1960s to avoid the pitfalls of group discussions, such as yielding to authority or blindly following the majority. To eliminate mutual influence among members, the participating experts may not know each other, and anonymous methods are used to repeatedly solicit expert opinions and conduct back-to-back exchanges, fully leveraging their wisdom, knowledge, and experience. Finally, a forecasting result that reflects the group's will is compiled. The general working procedure of the Delphi method is as follows:
(1) Determine the research objectives and draft the research outline. First, the objectives must be clearly defined, and a detailed outline of the questions requiring expert responses must be formulated. At the same time, relevant background materials, including the purpose of the forecast, timeline, survey form instructions, and other requirements, should be provided to the experts.
(2) Select a group of experts familiar with the issue, generally around 20 people, including experts in theory and practice.
(3) Send survey forms to the selected experts via correspondence to solicit their opinions.
(4) Summarize and quantitatively analyze the returned opinions and then send them back to the relevant experts for further rounds. After three or four rounds of opinion comparison, data processing and synthesis are conducted to arrive at the final result. Each round takes about 7 to 10 days, with the entire process taking approximately one month to yield a preliminary result. A shorter duration may be difficult for experts to provide feedback due to their busy schedules, while a longer duration may introduce more external interference, affecting the objectivity of the results. The advantages of this method mainly lie in its simplicity, scientific rigor, and practicality. It avoids the drawbacks of meeting discussions, such as fear of authority, reluctant agreement, stubbornness, or reluctance to express differing opinions due to social pressure. Additionally, it allows opinions to converge relatively quickly, and participants are more likely to accept the conclusions, ensuring a certain degree of objectivity in synthesizing opinions. However, its disadvantages include the fact that experts are often busy and may provide hasty responses, and the forecast ultimately relies on collective subjective judgment of experts. Furthermore, selecting suitable experts can be challenging, and the opinion-solicitation process is lengthy, making it unsuitable for situations requiring rapid judgment. Despite these limitations, this method remains a commonly used qualitative forecasting approach due to its simplicity and reliability.
3.3.2 Quantitative Decision-Making
Quantitative decision-making methods are based on mathematical models. They express the variables and relationships between variables and decision objectives in mathematical models and determine decision solutions through the solution of these models. Depending on the conditions faced in decision-making, we can categorize decisions into three types: deterministic decisions, risky decisions, and uncertain decisions. Below, we will introduce the commonly used quantitative analysis methods for each type of decision.
(1) Deterministic Decision-Making
Deterministic decision-making refers to decisions where each action produces a certain outcome. Therefore, it can be determined through quantitative analysis to find the optimal solution. There are many methods for deterministic decision-making, such as linear programming and goal programming. Here, we will only introduce the simplest and most common general method.
1. Break-Even Point Analysis. As everyone knows, the goal of modern enterprises is to maximize profits. Under certain conditions, the zero-profit point serves as a dividing line for determining the feasibility of an action. This point is also commonly referred to as the break-even point. We divide a company's costs into fixed costs and variable costs. Fixed costs are those that remain unchanged within a certain period and business volume range, regardless of changes in business volume. They are usually caused by long-term, less adjustable production factors, such as office expenses, depreciation, and the salaries of general managers. In contrast, variable costs are those whose total cost changes within a certain period and business volume range as production volume fluctuates. Examples include raw materials, product packaging costs, and production worker wages. It is important to note that variable costs refer to the total cost. From the perspective of unit product cost, the concepts of fixed and variable costs are reversed. Since fixed costs remain constant over a period, the fixed cost per unit product decreases as production volume increases. Meanwhile, the total variable cost changes proportionally with production volume, but the variable cost per unit product remains fixed. Therefore, based on the relationship between fixed costs, variable costs, and production volume, we can determine the company's break-even point, i.e., the break-even point.
Assume:
Q: Quantity (or sales volume)
Q0: Break-even point quantity (or sales volume)
S: Total revenue or sales
P: Unit selling price
C: Total cost
FC: Fixed cost
VC: Variable cost
AVC: Variable cost per unit product
R: Total profit
Then:
S = P × Q
C = FC + VC = FC + AVC × Q
R = S - C
When the company is at the break-even point, i.e., R = 0, we have:
S = C
P × Q0 = FC + AVC × Q0
Q0 = FC ÷ (P - AVC)
We can also analyze this using a graphical method.