Causes of War: Eastern Translation Institute Translation Series

Author: (American) Efraim, translated by He Yao
Publisher:
Publishing Date: 2007-01-01
Features: What are the reasons that have triggered numerous wars in modern society? Among these reasons, which ones can be prevented? What might be the causes of future wars? And how can these wars be better prevented? This book focuses on researching the causes of war related to the nature and distribution of national power. It first proposes the immediate causes of war, then shifts to the distant causes. Chapter 2 points out a danger (incorrect optimism), which is partly derived from the dangers depicted in Chapters 3 and 6 (the benefits of preemptive action and easy conquest). The dangers highlighted in Chapters 3, 4, and 5 (the benefits of preemptive action, windows, and the cumulative nature of resources) also stem from easy conquest. This arrangement is not strictly followed. Some early-mentioned phenomena lead to later-mentioned phenomena. However, generally speaking, the book moves from immediate causes to distant causes, with the issue of easy conquest being regarded as a primary cause of other dangers. One of the Eastern Translation Press Translation Series. The author is one of the representatives of the defensive realism theory. The book proposes five hypotheses about the causes of war and analyzes and argues them separately. (1) Holding incorrect optimism about crises and the outcomes of war, or underestimating the costs of war, can easily lead to war. (2) If the party that takes the first action or initiates an attack has certain advantages, war is more likely to break out. (3) Changes in relative power (referred to by the author as "windows") can easily lead to war. (4) When control over resources compels a country to protect other resources, war is more likely to break out. (5) The easier conquest is, the more likely war is to break out. In our world, where war and conflict still exist, studying the causes of war is not to promote war, but to avoid many wars that could have been avoided.