2006-2007: Analysis and Forecast of Liaoning's Socio-Economic Situation ()

Author: Cao Xiaofeng
Publisher:
Publishing Date: 2007-01-01
Features: The Analysis and Forecast of the Economic and Social Situation in Liaoning Province (Liaoning Blue Book) has been published for 13 consecutive years. Over these 13 years, our work in compiling the Blue Book has always adhered to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Important Thought of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development. We have conscientiously implemented the spirit of the Party's 15th and 16th National Congresses, as well as the resolutions of the 9th and 10th Plenary Sessions of the Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China. In line with the goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, constructing a harmonious Liaoning, and promoting the comprehensive revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base, we have adhered to the purpose of philosophy and social sciences—recognizing the world, inheriting civilization, innovating theories, providing policy advice, and serving society. We have closely focused on the actual reforms and development of Liaoning, analyzing and forecasting the province's economic and social situation to provide a reference basis and intellectual support for scientific decision-making by the provincial and municipal Party committees and governments, rational guidance for public policy choices by relevant departments, and information windows for government agencies, departments, and enterprises at home and abroad concerned about Liaoning's development. We have also provided an information platform for the broad cadres and masses of Liaoning to objectively understand the great achievements, existing problems, and development trends in the province's economic and social progress. At the same time, we have provided a comprehensive historical record for future generations. For this reason, we have always emphasized the need to adhere to the principles of objectivity, science, and foresight in the compilation process.
Objectivity means objectively presenting the real trajectory of Liaoning's economic and social operations. In terms of achievements and problems, neither exaggeration nor concealment is allowed. In the analysis of the situation, it is essential to base it on facts and avoid simplistic reasoning. In the use of data, rigorous verification is necessary to distinguish truth from falsehood. In summarizing experience, attention must be paid to grasping the essential characteristics at a deeper level to prevent superficial analysis.
Science means that when studying, analyzing, and forecasting the economic and social situation, we should strive to use economic models and the latest research methods and evaluation systems to maximize accuracy.
Foresight means accurately grasping and forecasting the trends of major aspects of the economic and social situation and proposing targeted countermeasures with feasibility and operability.
Additionally, we place special emphasis on maintaining an expert stance and an academic perspective in the Blue Book's positioning. The Blue Book is not the same as an official white paper. It is a research report by experts and scholars based on in-depth investigations and research. Adhering to the principles of linking theory, methods, and practice, as well as combining the macro and micro perspectives, it uses scientific, authoritative, and comprehensive economic and social indicators as a foundation, applying relevant theories of economic and social development to propose assessments, analyses, forecasts, countermeasures, and early warnings regarding Liaoning's economic and social development. These reports represent the personal insights of experts and scholars and may sometimes differ from official views, but perhaps this is precisely their value. Because these experts' insights may uncover unrecognized problems, reveal overlooked contradictions, or propose feasible countermeasures based on in-depth analysis, they may serve as catalysts for decision-makers to make correct decisions.
Currently, the Blue Book we publish still has room for improvement and refinement, but overall, it has largely achieved its original purpose of compilation and publication. As the influence of the Liaoning Blue Book grows, societal expectations for it continue to rise. How to make our Blue Book's analysis of the situation more objective, profound, and its forecasts more accurate, and how to propose more feasible countermeasures, especially in terms of highlighting the annual themes and social hot and difficult issues, are issues we must address seriously in future compilation work.
Based on over a decade of experience in compilation, we deeply understand that to produce a high-quality Blue Book, we must first correctly handle the following relationships:
1. Balancing Highlighting Themes and Addressing the General Situation. With the development of the situation, our annual Blue Book should have a focus, or theme, to avoid uniformity in content and form. However, as an analysis and forecast of the economic and social situation, it cannot be separated from an analysis of the overall economic and social situation and the development status of its main aspects, otherwise, it would not be an analysis and forecast of the situation but rather a specialized research report. Both aspects must be balanced. For example, revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base is the theme of this year's Blue Book. This requires us not to describe Liaoning's economic and social operations in a general manner but to align with the guidance, principles, and strategic measures proposed by the central government for revitalizing the old industrial bases in Northeast China. It should reflect Liaoning's progress, achievements, problems, and causes in implementing the strategy for revitalizing the old industrial base, and propose countermeasures on this basis. It should not only reflect the situation in a specific field or industry but also place it in the broader context of revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base. It is essential to clarify the internal links between the situation in a specific field or industry and the revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base.
2. Balancing Academic Research and Propaganda Discipline. The Blue Book we compile is an academic work, and as such, it has no taboos in academic research. However, it is also a publicly published academic work, possibly even one distributed domestically and internationally, so attention must be paid to political stance, views, and external impact. Therefore, when analyzing and researching, we must liberate our minds, break through various limitations, and dare to propose new viewpoints, ideas, and suggestions. When finalizing and publishing, we must maintain a high level of political firmness and sensitivity. The viewpoints proposed in the manuscript must align with the basic standpoints, perspectives, and methods of Marxism, the basic theory, line, and policies of the Party, the spirit of a series of central documents since the 16th National Congress, and national laws and regulations. If there are different academic viewpoints, we encourage and actively assist in reflecting them through other permissible channels or media. However, in the publicly published Blue Book, there must be no political issues or negative impacts.
3. Balancing Vertical and Horizontal Comparative Analysis. Vertical analysis means reflecting the dynamic process of Liaoning's economic and social development. It is not enough to describe and analyze the development of the current year; it is also necessary to reflect comparisons with the previous year, and in some cases, comparisons with several major historical periods since the reform and opening-up. Only in this way can we more accurately grasp the pulse of economic and social development from the historical process of Liaoning and propose practical countermeasures. Horizontal analysis means analyzing and researching Liaoning against the backdrop of the entire country. This includes not only comparisons with other coastal provinces in the east but also with faster-developing provinces in the central and western regions. It is not enough to focus on Liaoning's position or rank in the country; it is more important to study its gaps and shortcomings. If possible, comparative studies with the experiences of industrial base transformation and revitalization in other countries can also be conducted. When making comparisons, attention must be paid to comparability and scientific rigor.
4. Balancing Description and Analysis. Reflecting the historical process of Liaoning's economic and social development, revealing its achievements and gaps through data and situations is the fundamental value of the Liaoning Blue Book. However, it cannot stop at description alone. It is necessary to make judgments on the basic situation, analyze the causes of existing problems, and propose countermeasures for solving them. In short, there must be conclusions and viewpoints, not just a simple introduction or a flat narrative.
5. Balancing General and Individual Writing Styles. Attention must be paid to the standardization of article structure, writing style, and language. The structure of the article must be complete: it cannot have only progress and achievements without problems, causes, and countermeasures—only the beginning without the end; nor can it have only problems, causes, and countermeasures without progress and achievements—only the end without the beginning. The Blue Book is a research report and must be written in the form of a research report, not a development plan or a paper.
Finally, to compile a high-quality Blue Book, it is essential to adhere to the guidance of the Scientific Outlook on Development, the principles of "people-centered" comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development. The Scientific Outlook on Development proposed by the central leadership with Hu Jintao as general secretary is a guiding principle that must be adhered to for a long time in advancing the comprehensive development of socialist economic, political, cultural, and social construction, and it is also a guiding principle that must be adhered to for revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze from the perspective of implementing the Scientific Outlook on Development, reflect how Liaoning has advanced the revitalization of its old industrial base under the guidance of the Scientific Outlook on Development, and study the gaps in implementing the Scientific Outlook on Development and how to further implement it in the revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base. When writing the manuscript, adhering to the guidance of the Scientific Outlook on Development is not reflected in mere wording but in the concept and vision, based on facts for analysis.