Research on the Early Warning System for Food and Food Security

Author: Mei Fangquan
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-11-01
Features: This book proposes China's grain and food safety early warning prototype system. The project received praise from the expert group for acceptance and evaluation. The two directors of the Management Science Department pointed out that this is a rare high evaluation in recent years for the Management Science Department. The project achieved the following expected outcomes. First, it systematically studied the theoretical foundation of the grain and food safety early warning system, particularly focusing on the four available models for ensuring grain security: the self-sufficiency model, trade model, self-sufficiency-based model, and trade-based model. It proposed that China's grain security should adopt a self-sufficiency-based model. Second, it developed a grain safety early warning indicator system and sensitive range for alert indicators that align with China's national conditions, and conducted analysis of grain security reserve strategies and reserve alert indicators using various methods such as multi-objective programming. Third, it developed five distinctive early warning analysis models: the food supply-demand forecasting and policy analysis model, the short-term food supply-demand balance analysis model, the crop yield meteorological prediction model, the grain production fluctuation and short-term prediction model, and the system dynamics model. From the perspective of resource, environment, and macroeconomic policy changes, it analyzed their impact on the balance of food supply and demand. Fourth, it developed corresponding databases and network support systems, establishing eight types of databases. Building on the original China Agricultural Information Network, it added network query functions, enabling the network transmission of agricultural data from 30 provinces and cities, allowing the early warning system to operate collaboratively across provincial boundaries. Fifth, it developed China's grain and food safety early warning prototype system, integrating indicator early warning, model early warning, and expert early warning to effectively conduct early warning analysis and judgment on China's grain and food security status.