2006-2007: Analysis and Forecast of Liaoning's Socio-Economic Situation -(Includes CD-ROM)

Author: Chief Editors Cao Xiaofeng, Fang Xiaolin, Zhang Zhuomin
Publisher:
Publishing Date: 2007-01-01
Features: The Analysis and Forecast of the Economic and Social Situation in Liaoning Province (Liaoning Blue Book) has been published for 13 consecutive years. Over these 13 years, our blue book writing work has always adhered to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Important Thought of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development, seriously implementing the spirit of the Party's 15th and 16th National Congresses, as well as the full sessions of the Party Committee of Liaoning Province's 9th and 10th terms. In line with the goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, constructing a harmonious Liaoning, and promoting the comprehensive revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base, we have, with the aim of philosophy and social sciences to understand the world, inherit civilization, innovate theories, advise the government, and serve society, focused closely on the actual reform and development of Liaoning. We have conducted analytical research and forecasting on the province's economic and social development situation, aiming to provide a reference basis and intellectual support for scientific decision-making by the provincial and municipal party committees and governments, rational references for public policy choices by relevant departments, and information windows for government agencies, departments, and enterprises at home and abroad concerned about Liaoning's development, as well as for theoretical workers. This also serves as an information platform for the broad cadres and masses of Liaoning to objectively understand the great achievements, existing problems, and developmental trends in the province's economic and social development, providing them with factual historical records. For this reason, we have always emphasized the need to adhere to the principles of objectivity, science, and foresight in the writing process.
Objectivity means objectively presenting the real trajectory of Liaoning's economic and social operations. In terms of achievements and problems, neither exaggeration nor concealment is allowed. In the analysis of the situation, it is necessary to base oneself on facts and avoid simplistic reasoning. In the use of data, strict verification is required to distinguish truth from falsehood. In the summary of experience, attention must be paid to grasping the essential characteristics at a deep level to prevent superficial analysis.
Science means that when researching, analyzing, and forecasting the economic and social situation, efforts should be made to use economic models and the latest research methods and evaluation systems to maximize accuracy.
Foresight means accurately grasping and forecasting the trends of major aspects of the economic and social situation and making targeted proposals for feasible and actionable countermeasures.
Additionally, we particularly emphasize adhering to an expert stance and an academic perspective in the positioning of the blue book. Unlike official white papers, the blue book is a research report by experts and scholars based on in-depth investigations and research. It follows the principles of linking theory, methods, and practice, as well as combining the macro and micro perspectives, using scientific, authoritative, and detailed economic and social development indicators as a foundation. It applies relevant theories of economic and social development to propose research reports on the assessment, analysis, forecasting, countermeasures, and early warnings of Liaoning's economic and social development. These reports represent the personal insights of experts and scholars and may sometimes differ from official views, but perhaps this is precisely their value. Because these experts' insights may reveal unrecognized problems, highlight certain contradictions that have yet to be addressed, or propose feasible countermeasures for specific issues after in-depth analysis, they may serve as catalysts for decision-makers to make correct decisions.
Currently, the "blue book" we publish still has room for improvement and refinement, but overall, it has basically achieved the original purpose of our writing and publishing. As the influence of the "Liaoning Blue Book" continues to grow, society's expectations for it have also increased. How to make our "blue book" more objective and profound in its analysis of the situation, more accurate in its forecasts for future development, and more feasible in its proposed countermeasures, especially in highlighting the annual characteristics and hot and difficult issues of social concern, is a problem we must address seriously in our future writing work.
Based on more than ten years of writing experience, we deeply realize that to write a good blue book, it is first necessary to correctly handle the following relationships:
1. Balancing Highlighting Themes and Covering General Aspects. With the development of the situation, the blue book we write each year should have a focus, that is, a theme, otherwise it will become monotonous in form and content. However, as an analysis and forecast of the economic and social situation, it cannot be separated from the analysis of the overall economic and social situation and the development status of its main aspects, otherwise it cannot be called an analysis and forecast of the situation but would become a thematic research report. It is essential to balance these two aspects. For example, revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base is the theme of our blue book this year, which requires us not to describe the general economic and social operation of Liaoning but to align with the guidance, principles, and strategic measures proposed by the central government for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China. It should reflect the progress, results, problems, and causes of Liaoning in implementing the strategy for revitalizing the old industrial base, and on this basis, propose countermeasures. It should not only reflect the situation in a certain field or industry but also place the situation of that field or industry within the broader context of revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base, clarifying the internal links between the situation of a certain field or industry and the revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base.
2. Balancing Academic Research and Publicity Discipline. The blue book we write is an academic work. As academic research, it has no taboos; however, as a publicly published academic work, or even an academic work published domestically and internationally, it also needs to pay attention to political stance, political views, and external impact. Therefore, when conducting analysis and research, we must liberate our minds, break through various limitations, and dare to propose some new viewpoints, ideas, and suggestions; when finalizing and publishing, we must maintain a high level of political firmness and political sensitivity. The viewpoints proposed in the manuscript must conform to the basic standpoints, viewpoints, and methods of Marxism, the basic theory, line, and policies of the Party, the spirit of a series of central documents since the 16th National Congress, and the laws and relevant regulations of the country. If there are different academic viewpoints, we encourage and actively help to reflect them to relevant parties through other permissible channels or media, but in the publicly published blue book, there must be no political problems in terms of views, and it must not cause negative effects.
3. Balancing Vertical and Horizontal Comparative Analysis. Vertical analysis means reflecting the dynamic process of Liaoning's economic and social development. It is not enough to describe and analyze the development of the current year; it is also necessary to reflect the comparison with the previous year, and some may even need to compare with several major historical periods since the reform and opening-up, so that from the comparison of Liaoning's historical process of economic and social development, a more accurate grasp of the pulse of economic and social development can be achieved, and practical countermeasures can be proposed. Horizontal analysis means analyzing and researching Liaoning against the backdrop of the entire country. It is not only necessary to compare and study with other provinces in the eastern coastal areas but also with middle and western provinces with faster development; it is not only necessary to pay attention to Liaoning's position or rank in the country but also to study its gaps and shortcomings. If possible, it can also compare the experience of industrial base transformation and revitalization with other old industrial bases in other countries in the world. When making comparisons, it is essential to pay attention to comparability and scientificity.
4. Balancing Description and Analysis. Reflecting the historical process of Liaoning's economic and social development and revealing its achievements and gaps through data and situation descriptions is the basic value of the Liaoning Blue Book, but it cannot stop at description alone. It is necessary to have judgments on the basic situation, cause analysis of existing problems, and countermeasures for solving problems. In short, there must be conclusions and viewpoints, and it cannot be written as a simple introduction, presented in a flat and unstructured manner.
5. Balancing General and Individual Writing Styles. Attention must be paid to the standardization of article structure, writing style, and language. The article structure must be complete: it cannot have only progress and achievements without problems, causes, and countermeasures—only the beginning without the end; nor can it have only problems, causes, and countermeasures without progress and achievements—only the end without the beginning. The blue book is a research report and must be written in the form of a research report. It cannot be written as a "development plan" or as a paper.
Finally, to write a good blue book, it is essential to highlight the guidance of the Scientific Outlook on Development, adhering to the principles of "people-centered" comprehensive development, coordinated development, and sustainable development. The Scientific Outlook on Development proposed by the central leadership with Hu Jintao at its core is a guiding principle that must be adhered to for a long time in promoting the comprehensive development of socialist economic, political, cultural, and social construction, and it is also a guiding principle that must be adhered to in revitalizing Liaoning's old industrial base. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze from the perspective of implementing the Scientific Outlook on Development, reflect how Liaoning has guided the revitalization of the old industrial base with the Scientific Outlook on Development, study the gaps in implementing the Scientific Outlook on Development, and study how to further implement the Scientific Outlook on Development in the revitalization of Liaoning's old industrial base.
When writing manuscripts, adhering to the guidance of the Scientific Outlook on Development is not reflected in words alone but also in the concept and vision. It is necessary to analyze based on facts.