2006 Military and Sports Annual Report

Author: Li Weiliang, Feng Tao / Country: Mainland China
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-01-01
Features: A philosopher once said that predicting the future is one of the most difficult things. This is a philosophical truth. However, humans inevitably move from the past into the present and then from the present into the future. Looking ahead from the footprints left in 2004, the world military situation in 2005 may show the following trends.
Counterterrorism Struggle: Grim Situation
In December 2004, some Western scholars believed that 2005 could be a turning point for the decline of terrorism. They argued that in 2005, al-Qaeda would continue to flee, its leaders exhausted and scattered, their communication channels disrupted, and large-scale terrorist attacks would be harder to launch than ever before. They cited two reasons for this. First, although international terrorism may currently appear more terrifying and random, the situation in the 1980s was twice as bad. Back then, in most years, the world witnessed over 600 attacks, causing over 1,000 deaths annually. Today, terrorism typically results in fewer than 300 similar incidents per year, most years causing 600 to 700 deaths. This may offer little comfort to those living under the shadow of domestic terrorism (e.g., Israelis or Iraqis), but international terrorism will not destabilize the world. "Unless the world falls into crisis due to its own scaremongering." Second, the unified goals and disciplinary principles within al-Qaeda's top leadership will face severe tests from the fanatical actions of its subordinate groups. Terrorist organizations will compete for power and ideological purity. Al-Qaeda's influence will weaken, making it easier for counterterrorism forces to infiltrate the warring factions. The fierce amateurs at the bottom of the pyramid, who are both ruthless and incompetent, may begin to drift away from potential supporters of anti-Western terrorism. "Al-Qaeda's holy war fervor is neither as strong as it appears nor as solid as it seems."
Regardless of whether Western scholars' statistics are accurate, two anti-terrorism wars have already had a significant impact on global stability. They have not made regional security more stable but rather more volatile, and the world has not become more unified but more divided. Is this not the case? As for the claim that internal divisions within al-Qaeda are leading to its decline, this is wishful thinking. Before the Afghanistan war, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that al-Qaeda's membership did not exceed 10,000. In 2004, these same agencies estimated the number had risen to 40,000 to 50,000, with British media putting the figure as high as 70,000. The more counterterrorism wars are fought, the stronger al-Qaeda becomes—a view shared by the international community. Of course, al-Qaeda's original leadership and organizational structure have undoubtedly undergone fragmentation due to repeated setbacks, leading to internal chaos and a decline in combat effectiveness. However, to conclude that this proves al-Qaeda's decline is clearly lacking in.
The grim situation in counterterrorism for the new year is based on the following reasons: , Bin Laden shows even stronger determination, and the terrorist forces may intensify their activities. As the saying goes, "to catch a thief, first catch the king." If the king is eliminated, the thieves will collapse on their own. If the king cannot be captured or eliminated, the thieves will resurface like "spring winds blowing again and again." The reason why there are more terrorists in recent years is largely because Bin Laden has not been captured. Some Western commentators jokingly call Bin Laden a world-famous "brand" and the symbol of global terrorism. This is not entirely without reason. Bin Laden has become the spiritual leader of global terrorist forces, adored by almost all terrorist groups. Every time Bin Laden's video or audio is broadcast on TV or radio, it is as if issuing a series of commands, and the relevant terrorist organizations carry out attack after attack. Therefore, as long as Bin Laden is not captured, terrorist forces will not stop their activities and may even resort to more brutal attacks to harm society.
Second, there is a trend of "unification" among terrorist forces. On September 1, 2004, a major hostage-taking incident occurred in Beslan, Russia, with 27 of the killed terrorists coming from Arab countries, and another one being Black. In 2004, apart from attacks in Israel and Iraq, almost all attackers in other terrorist incidents were linked to al-Qaeda, either coordinating with or following its orders. In Iraq, there are now over a dozen nationalities among foreign terrorists. This trend of unification makes the actions of terrorist forces appear more unified and coordinated, and their attacks may become more effective and prominent.
Third, the methods of terrorist attacks may become more diversified. In earlier decades, terrorists used light weapons and explosives to carry out attacks on the ground. By the 1980s, aircraft had become targets for suicide attacks by terrorists. Later, attacks using anti-aircraft missiles to target aircraft also emerged. The use of aircraft as weapons of attack was a creation of terrorists during the "9/11" incident. In recent years, many countries, especially Western developed nations, have strengthened their countermeasures against terrorists, making the implementation of the aforementioned methods increasingly difficult. As a result, terrorists have turned to seeking nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons to carry out attacks. In the aftermath of "9/11," the United States suffered several anthrax attacks, but they did not cause major consequences due to insufficient dosage and swift responses. The U.S. and Western developed nations have long been worried about another nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. This concern is well-founded. A small nuclear device the size of a basketball or a bottle of high-purity, high-performance biological or chemical war agent, if used in a terrorist attack, could instantly take thousands of lives, and the shockwave from a nuclear explosion could mercilessly destroy vast areas of buildings. According to U.S. intelligence investigations, al-Qaeda may have already acquired small nuclear devices through underground channels. As for biological and chemical agents, many research institutions have "stockpiles," making them much easier to obtain than small nuclear devices. Once terrorist organizations obtain these weapons, they will show no mercy. Whether terrorists will use nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons in 2005 is unknown, but the possibility exists.
Moreover, terrorist organizations are not short of highly intelligent individuals. They have the ability to invent "tricks" beyond ordinary imagination, which is one reason why terrorist attacks are so difficult to prevent. Another point that must be mentioned is whether a new counterterrorism war will break out in 2005. This is one of the focal points of attention. Based on the current situation, while the possibility of a new counterterrorism war in the new year cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to break out easily. First, there is currently no evidence that any regime belongs to a terrorist nature or serves as a backing for terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda. Without a direct target for the war, the likelihood of launching a large-scale counterterrorism war will naturally decrease. Second, the United States is very busy in the new year, stabilizing post-election Iraq,,“”， whether it has the to start a new war is debatable. Third, the international community does not support a new counterterrorism war. Even the British government publicly stated at the end of 2004 that even if Iran violates the agreement to suspend nuclear development, the UK would not participate in a war against Iran. With these reasons in mind,