2005-2006 Analysis and Forecast of China's Macroeconomic Situation

Author: Research Group of the Macroeconomic Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2006-02-01
Features: Presented to the readers is our latest research findings on the analysis and forecast of China's macroeconomic situation in 2005—2006. The book includes 5 comprehensive analysis reports, 8 thematic reports, and 7 hot topic reports, with detailed and systematic macroeconomic data for each month of 2005 appended at the end of the book. 2005 was the last year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Under the influence of the dual-prudent macroeconomic policy, the national economy achieved a sound conclusion with high growth and low inflation, while the stability and coordination of economic growth were both improved, and reforms made relatively significant progress in some aspects. These developments will lay a solid foundation for China to maintain rapid and stable growth in 2006, the opening year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The main problem facing the macroeconomy in 2006 is the combined effect of excess production capacity and insufficient consumer demand, which may lead to a re-emergence of deflation. The macroeconomic policy orientation for 2006 and the early period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan is to continue adhering to the dual-prudent overall policy approach, with a focus on preventing deflation. The three major policy tools—fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies—will be flexibly applied around three key policy orientations.