Social Forecasting Basic Principles

Author: Yan Yaojun
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-10-01
Features: Is there a difference between human prediction and animal intuition? Is social prediction the same as natural prediction? This book re-examines the history of human exploration into the future from the perspective of social prediction. Natural sciences can predict events even down to the second for a hundred years, but why can't social prediction create a "social calendar" for the future? This book will use the "Oedipus Effect," "Butterfly Effect," "Gambling and Game Theory in Social Prediction," "Self-Fulfilling Prophecy," and "Self-Negating Prophecy" to explain the mysteries behind it.
"Fortune favors the bold, but misfortune may fall unexpectedly," can society be predicted? Under what conditions is social prediction possible, and under what conditions is it impossible? This book will reveal the 7 major principles of social prediction.
This book primarily explores the disciplinary positioning of social prediction and its fundamental principles from various perspectives. The author argues that since Comte and Marx, sociology has always had a tradition of valuing social prediction. With the acceleration of contemporary social change, the value of social prediction has become increasingly evident. Social prediction holds a highly important position and role in sociology and even the entire social sciences, making it a crucial discipline that must be established and revitalized. The current primary task is to clarify misunderstandings about social prediction and strengthen the exploration of its fundamental theories, laying a solid foundation for the establishment of social prediction studies. For this purpose, this book focuses on an in-depth discussion of the 7 major principles of social prediction, including the principle of game theory, the principle of regularity, the principle of periodicity, the principle of similarity, the principle of inertia, the principle of systematization, and the principle of unpredictability.