Research on Fluctuations in Cotton Production in China

Author: Tan Yanwen
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-08-01
Features: The main content of this book is as follows:
1. This book employs unit root test techniques from modern econometrics to refine the method of measuring volatility characteristics and analyzing the formation mechanisms of volatility, making certain pioneering contributions in research methods for analyzing the formation mechanisms and influencing factors of volatility.
2. This book applies internal transmission and external shock volatility theory and models to analyze the formation mechanisms of China's cotton production volatility, concluding that external factors such as policies and natural disasters have the largest impact on China's cotton production volatility. Within China's cotton production system, fluctuations in sown area are the primary direct factor leading to yield volatility. The book uses a local high-speed model and cointegration test methods to analyze that the main factors influencing China's cotton sown area are the cotton price of the previous period and the production costs of the current year. Under the monopolistic operation of China's cotton market in 1999 and the state's administrative pricing system, the government's basis for setting cotton prices, in addition to production costs, also included inventory information from supply and marketing cooperatives.
3. This book explores the process, background, and reasons for China's cotton circulation system reform using institutional economics, rent-seeking economics, and economic game theory, pointing out that the rent-seeking behavior of state-owned monopolistic ginning enterprises was the fundamental reason for the repeated failures of China's cotton circulation system reforms.
4. This book applies Granger causality tests to analyze the influencing factors of China's cotton trade volatility.
5. This book also examines the volatility characteristics and influencing factors of U.S. cotton production, comparing them with those of China's cotton production, and studies the features of the U.S. cotton production and circulation system as well as the government's support policies.
6. Based on the summary of the entire book, it finally proposes a series of policy recommendations for stabilizing and developing China's cotton production.