Facing Toffler

Author: Wen Shiren / Country:
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-03-01
Features:
We believe that new technology will not standardize everyone but will provide more diversity and freedom of choice. New technology will make it harder for governments to monitor people, but it will enable people to express their opinions more diversely. We asked a Monsignor, "Has the daily life in the forest changed very little?" They said, "Because the pace of life is slow, any small change will have a significant impact on their lives." This statement suggests that even in a society with slow change, any alteration will have a major impact.
The concept of "the wave" is not just a means of organizing vast amounts of scattered information but also helps us see the essence beneath the turbulent waves of change. What was once confusing has become clear, and familiar patterns are emerging. As I began to think about "the wave of change," its impact and the contradictions and pressures it creates around us changed my perception of change itself. In various fields—from education, health to technology, and from personal life to politics—I can distinguish between superficial innovations, extensions of industrial civilization, and truly revolutionary innovations.
Many people think that with the advent of the network society, everyone will work from home, and cities will disappear. Dr. Toffler also mentioned the possibility of "empty cities" emerging, but this is not as simple as it seems. In the foreseeable future, cities will still be the basic units of economic development. Although they may become quieter, they will never stop. In the past, as long as people were willing to work hard, their lives could be immediately improved. But now, machines have replaced manual labor, and to get a job, knowledge is required, which means education—but not the kind we have today.
From another perspective, statistics from the United Nations and the World Bank show that nearly 800 million people worldwide earn less than one dollar per day, and another 800 million earn less than two dollars per day. They are forced to struggle for survival, living a very difficult life. With a total global population of 6 billion, this means that 400 million people have no problems with basic living. This was not possible in the past, when global food production could only sustain one to two billion people. I believe that with current technology, more people can be supported, so I am not pessimistic in this regard. However, I do not believe it will be easy, nor do I believe that everyone will benefit equally. Many will lose their jobs or homes, but others will profit.
Wen Shiren: Based on what you’ve said, entering the Third Wave society will increase unemployment?
Alvin Toffler: Yes. Many blame technology for unemployment, but the United States and Japan, which have a lot of new technology, also have the lowest unemployment rates and the fewest farmers. Heidi once reminded President Reagan, Vice President Bush, his staff, and other attendees at a meeting in the White House that the proportion of people engaged in manufacturing in the U.S. would continue to decline, shifting toward service-based industries. In the past, everyone had to work in the fields just to make ends meet. Now, less than 3% of the U.S. population is involved in agriculture, not only sustaining the entire nation but also exporting agricultural products worldwide, making it the world’s largest agricultural exporter. Heidi Toffler: We even have an oversupply of agricultural products, and the government must spend money to purchase the surplus.
Alvin Toffler: The same situation applies to manufacturing. Production has increased, exports have risen, but there has been no corresponding increase in employment, and in some cases, employment has even decreased. Heidi Toffler: We have moved production to countries with lower labor costs. But at some point, lower labor costs become less important than "speed."
Wen Shiren: But unemployment is a real problem. How should countries address the rising unemployment rates?
Alvin Toffler: Traditional economic theories, whether capitalist or communist, cannot solve today’s unemployment problem. Can we live in a society out of control? This is one of the issues discussed in the concept of future shock, and it is also the situation we are currently facing. The problem of technology going out of control is already troublesome, but what’s worse is that other social norms are also beginning to loosen, and the larger shocks have exceeded our control. Urbanization, racial conflicts, immigration, population, and crime— are emerging, leaving us overwhelmed. Some of these problems stem from uncontrolled technology, while others are only partly related. The imbalances, rapid changes, and directions of change caused by these transformations make it difficult to believe that even technologically advanced societies, like Sweden or Belgium, are becoming increasingly complex and fast-changing, to the point of being unmanageable. When even strong governments cannot determine the direction of change, how can we prevent large-scale "future shocks," selectively adjust the pace of change, or increase or decrease the intensity of stimuli?
Wen Shiren: When the Second Wave transitioned to the Third Wave, many countries (including the U.S.) experienced bloody wars. As the Second Wave civilization prepares to transition to the Third Wave, what potential crises can you see?
Alvin Toffler: Yes. Change is the result of conflict, not natural progress. In any advanced country, backward regions will try to industrialize and protect their Second Wave factories and jobs, which will lead to positive conflicts with regions already building Third Wave technology. These conflicts will divide society but also open more opportunities for more efficient political and social activities. The super-conflict between the Second Wave and Third Wave societies does not erase the importance of other conflicts. Class conflicts, racial conflicts, and struggles between the young, the elderly, and the "middle-aged imperialism" will continue, as will conflicts over regions, gender, and religion. Some of these conflicts will become sharper, but they will be overshadowed by the impact of the super-conflict. The super-conflict is the most fundamental determinant of the future.
At the same time, the Third Wave is bringing two phenomena with it—one is the increasing diversification of society, moving from a mass society to a fragmented society. The second is the acceleration of change. These unprecedented phenomena are putting immense pressure on individuals and institutions. Under this intense pressure, fierce conflicts are raging around us.
Looking back at history and comparing different eras, we clearly see that human lifestyles have changed dramatically throughout history and have advanced at an exponential rate. Many factors have contributed to these changes, but the main one is technological development. From the 19th to the 20th century, we have seen significant changes in human life. I once wrote a book titled The Hardships and Growth of Taiwan’s Economy, describing Taiwan 50 years ago. After the book was published, a young reader wrote to me, "Mr. Wen, you’ve written beautifully, but did you really not use toilet paper back then?" And that’s the truth. In the past 50 years, Taiwan has undergone tremendous changes, from having nothing to being prosperous today—all thanks to technology.
The 20th century saw several major inventions that brought about radical changes in our lives. The discovery of oil led to the rise of the petrochemical industry, driving the invention and application of transportation tools like cars, trains, and airplanes. The mass production of materials like steel led to breakthroughs in construction technology, resulting in skyscrapers and the modern appearance of cities. Other advancements include rapidly evolving electrical functions. For example, life before the invention of electricity was completely different from today’s. Without electricity, there would be no electrical appliances. In the hot July days of Taiwan, many people would walk around bare-chested or seek shade outdoors, unlike today when we can sit at home with air conditioning and watch TV.
Think about it—if there were no electricity, there would be no elevators, and we couldn’t live in high-rise buildings. Without the invention of cars and airplanes, it would be much harder to travel to distant places. Comparing the huge differences between a century ago and today, you can understand how much life has changed—all thanks to technology. Because of technological advancement, our lives have changed.
In addition to gene therapy, there will be major breakthroughs in medicine in the next five years. A few years ago, the invention of "Viagra" allowed hundreds of millions of men to "regain their vitality." Recently, there has been an oral medication to treat advanced breast cancer. There are also ointments to treat diabetic wounds and weight-loss pills that expel fat from the body after being consumed. These are all results of biomedical progress, and in the coming years, many "shocking" biotechnologies will be successfully applied in medicine, something that was once hard to imagine.
(3) Agricultural biotechnology has many applications in agriculture. Through genetic modification, it may be possible to produce mangoes five times larger than existing ones or juicier, sweeter watermelons. With more mature cloning technology, people will not only be able to enjoy the best milk and meat but also produce them cheaply and in large quantities to solve the global food crisis caused by overpopulation. The benefits of biotechnology are not limited to production but can also address the increasingly severe environmental pollution problem. In October 1998, Japanese researchers extracted some genes from mung beans and sprinkled them on crops, finding that no insects would bite the crops. The genes from mung beans are non-toxic. If this experiment is successful, farmers will no longer need to use pesticides in the future. Of course, genetically modified plants may have some negative side effects, but this is still better than eating things with. Moreover, problems caused by genetic modification can also be solved through genetic modification.
(4) Environmental protection Pollution problems exist everywhere in the world, and most of them stem from industrial society. We are currently using various environmental tools to combat pollution, but this is fundamentally a superficial solution. The pollution of the Earth’s environment has become extremely severe. Take a city where the blue sky is often obscured by pollution as an example. If the government decides to "change the weather" and bans the use of polluting sources like gas, coal, and cars in the city, it will take 15 years for the city to see the blue sky again. The entire process is very slow and unrealistic. Based on the current state of technological development, biotechnology may be the fundamental solution to environmental problems. For example, recent research using biotechnology has developed bacteria that can consume polluting sources, which is a major breakthrough for environmental protection. Even river remediation and flood control can rely on biotechnology to identify genes that promote the growth of trees and their roots, allowing roots to grow two meters deeper to hold soil and prevent erosion from upstream, thus solving flood problems.
(5) Computer peripherals The cold, functional computer can also advance significantly with biotechnology, and considerable progress has already been made. Today’s computers can transmit text, images, and videos, but in the future, computer peripherals will be able to transmit sensations, odors, and fragrances. I have personally seen an artificial nose developed in a laboratory that can "smell" the breath in people’s mouths and analyze any problems through computer analysis. This is already part of the agenda for biotechnology development.