China Quarterly Economy Model (China-QEM)

Author: He Xinhua et al.
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2005-06-01
Features: China Quarterly Economic Model (China_QEM):
· One of the domestic macroeconomic models established for policy analysis
· One of the few domestic macroeconomic models oriented towards demand
· One of the few domestic quarterly macroeconomic models
· Dynamic modeling theory was adopted during the model development process
To conduct more scientifically rigorous analysis and research on the world economic situation, having a multi-country model that can be used for analyzing and forecasting the world economic situation has been a long-standing aspiration of several generations at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The successful development of the China Quarterly Economic Model (China_QEM) has laid a solid foundation for the early realization of this aspiration. The four key members of the model development team at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences—He Xinhua, Wu Haiying, Liu Shiguo, and Wang Ling—have devoted tremendous efforts to this project. The model development work was preliminarily completed by the end of 2002.
The China Quarterly Economic Model (China_QEM) differs from other publicly published domestic macroeconomic econometric models in many aspects. It is:
· One of the domestic macroeconomic models established for policy analysis
· One of the few domestic macroeconomic models oriented towards demand
· One of the few domestic quarterly macroeconomic models
· Its sample period covers the time interval when China officially entered the socialist market economy (Q1 1992–Q4 2001)
· Dynamic modeling theory was adopted during the model development process
Since 2003, China_QEM has been used in research on the impact of changes such as the RMB exchange rate, world export prices, economic growth in China's major trading partners, and domestic interest rates on China's macroeconomy, achieving satisfactory results.
This book consists of three main parts:
- Part 1 includes Chapters 1 to 4, which primarily outline the structure of China_QEM, its theoretical foundation, the characteristics of China's economic operation, and publicly available Chinese macroeconomic models.
- Part 2 includes Chapters 5 to 11, which introduce the behavioral equations of China_QEM.
- Part 3 includes Chapters 12 to 15, which discuss some applications of China_QEM.