Research on Fiscal Risk and Its Prevention

Author: Liu Shangxi
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2004-09-01
Features: The research framework of this book covers four parts: Part I is theoretical research, which includes Chapters 1, 2, 3, and 4. In this part, the concepts of risk, uncertainty, fiscal risk, etc., are elaborated, the public risk theory is discussed, and the widely popular "fiscal risk matrix" from abroad is revised. On this basis, the path, methods, and basic framework for assessing fiscal risk are proposed. Part II is an empirical study on the current situation and problems, including Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 8. This part mainly involves a case-based empirical analysis, which is not yet quantitative research. Based on the estimation of government debt, the fiscal risk status of China is analyzed from the perspectives of stock and flow. At the same time, from the perspective of economic operation, an empirical study is conducted on the future expenditure pressure and fiscal risk of the government. In this part, we propose a trend-based judgment: fiscal risk has an expanding trend, and the institutional existence of a "risk big pot" explains its cause. Part III is the reference and enlightenment of international experience, which is the content of Chapter 9. This part analyzes the basic practices, experiences, and enlightenment of more than 10 countries in preventing fiscal risk. Part IV belongs to countermeasures and suggestions, which is the content of Chapter 10. This part proposes basic ideas and suggestions for resolving fiscal risk from aspects such as controlling public risk, establishing a risk management mechanism, enhancing the government's ability to resist risk, and establishing a fiscal emergency response mechanism.