Finance and Economic Cycle Forecasting

Author: Qiu Dong
Publisher:
Publish Date: 1998-02-01
Features: This book serves as an encyclopedia of cyclical measurement methods. In this book, both descriptive and inferential methods related to cyclical fluctuations, seasonal models, long-term trends, and irregular variations are explained. Since various fluctuations in the real economy are mixed together, our understanding of cyclical fluctuations will be more accurate. The textbook provides detailed explanations of the methods described, while also clarifying their limitations and special applications, making them more accessible to readers. This book is not just about theoretical discussions but is grounded in a solid practical foundation. The content covered is quite extensive—it not only distinguishes between classical and growth-type fluctuations but also analyzes different cycles in the real economy. The book does not discuss methods in isolation; each method is supported by a systematic theoretical framework. In Chapter 2, the book presents explanations from various economic schools of thought regarding the causes and nature of cycles. From classical thought to modern perspectives, it clearly outlines the historical development of economic cycle theory, helping readers grasp the theoretical context of cyclical measurement methods.