Principles and Methods of Chaos Theory in Economic System Forecasting

Author: Liu Hong
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2003-08-01
Features: This book summarizes the research overview of chaos theory in economic system forecasting at home and abroad, elaborates the relationship between economic systems and chaos theory, reveals the chaotic characteristics of economic systems, analyzes the driving forces of economic chaos, and provides methods for diagnosing economic chaos. Based on explaining the connotation and characteristics of economic systems, it points out the main content of the analytical paradigm, system paradigm, and the transition from linear economics to complexity economics. According to chaos theory, it proposes the fundamental principles of economic system evolution, clarifies and refines the concept of system forecasting, and introduces the chaos paradigm and modeling principles for economic system forecasting. It also introduces the methods of chaos theory in economic system dynamics forecasting, time series forecasting, evolutionary scenario forecasting, and fractal growth forecasting. Finally, it introduces the characteristics of complex systems, the content of complexity theory, and highlights the impact of complexity theory on forecasting.