Research on Unemployment and Employment Changes in China

Author: Gu Jianping
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2003-05-01
Features: The main content and basic conclusions of the full text are as follows: First, based on the analysis and introduction of indicator design, accounting methods, and data values in labor statistics by the International Labor Organization and major developed countries, it points out the numerous shortcomings in China's labor employment statistics, as well as the stark disparities in relevant indicator values compared to other countries. Second, following the unemployment theory in macroeconomics as the main thread, it comprehensively reviews and summarizes the theories of economics related to unemployment. Third, to ensure the consistency and authority of the data, this study conducts a comprehensive review of China's labor employment situation from 1978 to 2000—covering employment methods, scale, structure, urban-rural distribution, etc.—through the processing of a large amount of official data. It also uses population growth and labor supply-demand models to predict the supply-demand relationship in the labor market for the next 20 years. Fourth, during the process of industrialization, the non-agriculturalization and urbanization transfer of rural labor constitute China's largest employment pressure. Fifth, social equity, social stability, and economic development are all related to the allocation and utilization mechanisms of labor. In China, which is in the late stage of market-oriented reform, people's identities and employment opportunities remain unequal to this day. Finally, after the 1990s, China's employment expansion lagged significantly behind economic growth. A key factor is that China's economic growth is following a capital-intensive and rapidly improving labor productivity track, leading to capital deepening unemployment. The article proposes the necessity for China's economy to shift from investment-driven growth to employment-driven growth, and its theoretical arguments require further exploration.