Quantitative Decision Analysis (Part 1, Part 2)

Author: John Powell
Publisher:
Publish Date: 2001-08-01
Features: When was the last time you used a calculator? Does your calculator only have four "arithmetic" functions? Today, most calculators are equipped with "statistics" keys marked with symbols like "on" or "∑x." Most people can calculate the average, but since there are several types of averages, which one is most applicable? Can the average provide meaningful insights, or do we need deeper analysis? If so, how should we proceed? Managers in various industries, whether in the private or public sector, and whether in production or service industries, must have the ability to process numerical information and draw conclusions from it. They often have to go out to gather the necessary information. However, can they truly understand the printed materials? If not, will they hesitate to consult the "computer gurus" who provide this information? It is crucial to recognize the potential of numerical information and the problems it brings. Of course, one does not need to memorize many formulas instantly, but neither should one be misled or left in the dark. This is not a comprehensive statistics textbook but rather a quick introductory guide. Many books are often overly complex while neglecting the need for readers to understand the fundamentals. We hope this book will help those who lack confidence in their numerical skills: once you understand the basics, more complex topics will seem less intimidating. Quantitative decision-making covers the generation and calculation of indices, methods and practices of forecasting, data collection and information description, types and selection of distribution forms, the drawing and application of decision trees, and more. It also discusses the theories and practical problems related to sampling, followed by abundant examples showing how to apply these theories to real-world decision-making in fields such as food, engineering, interior design, and consulting. Finally, it introduces queuing management, network analysis, and resource allocation problems. The book is divided into two volumes. The second volume briefly outlines the key and challenging points of each chapter and provides answers to most of the exercises. The entire book is rigorous in its arguments, well-supported by data, and highlights key points, helping readers learn and master quantitative analytical methods to make informed decisions. This book works best when used in conjunction with the other four books in the "Cambridge Contemporary Business Decision Analysis" series.